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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: A good rule that I learned from Stick

SubjectAuthor
* A good rule that I learned from StickTimothy Chow
+- Re: A good rule that I learned from Stickpeps...@gmail.com
+- Re: A good rule that I learned from Stickpeps...@gmail.com
`* Rollout: A good rule that I learned from StickTimothy Chow
 +- Re: Rollout: A good rule that I learned from StickTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: A good rule that I learned from StickStick Rice

1
A good rule that I learned from Stick

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: A good rule that I learned from Stick
Date: Sun, 3 Apr 2022 09:16:46 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 3 Apr 2022 13:16 UTC

Since I've been bashing Stick a lot recently, I thought I'd
counterbalance it by featuring a rule that I learned from Stick
that I have found very helpful over the years, about cube action
at 3-away/many-away.

XGID=-baBBCB-A--A-B--bd-cbB-a--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X O |
| X X | | X X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 151 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: A good rule that I learned from Stick

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Subject: Re: A good rule that I learned from Stick
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 3 Apr 2022 18:06 UTC

On Sunday, April 3, 2022 at 2:16:49 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> Since I've been bashing Stick a lot recently, I thought I'd
> counterbalance it by featuring a rule that I learned from Stick
> that I have found very helpful over the years, about cube action
> at 3-away/many-away.
>
> XGID=-baBBCB-A--A-B--bd-cbB-a--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X O |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | O | | O |
> | O | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X X X O |
> | X X | | X X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 128 O: 151 X-O: 4-0/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
ND/T but I'm not very confident.
After D/T, the opponent can recube to 4 at any time, to kill your gammons.

Paul

Re: A good rule that I learned from Stick

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Subject: Re: A good rule that I learned from Stick
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 3 Apr 2022 18:10 UTC

On Sunday, April 3, 2022 at 2:16:49 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> Since I've been bashing Stick a lot recently, I thought I'd
> counterbalance it by featuring a rule that I learned from Stick
> that I have found very helpful over the years, about cube action
> at 3-away/many-away.
>
> XGID=-baBBCB-A--A-B--bd-cbB-a--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X O |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | O | | O |
> | O | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X X X O |
> | X X | | X X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 128 O: 151 X-O: 4-0/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

The rule is very googlable. I googled the rule after my posting, not before.
If someone googles the rule before posting, but doesn't research the actual position, are they cheating?

Paul

Rollout: A good rule that I learned from Stick

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: A good rule that I learned from Stick
Date: Wed, 13 Apr 2022 08:51:35 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 13 Apr 2022 12:51 UTC

XGID=-baBBCB-A--A-B--bd-cbB-a--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X O |
| X X | | X X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 151 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Stick's rule for 3-away/many-away cube actions is, the 3-away player
should not double when gammons are still possible, because you'll
usually be either too good or not good enough. Doubling reduces the
value of your own gammons and gives your opponent an opportunity to
win 8 points by winning a redoubled gammon.

While others surely were aware of this rule, implicitly if not
explicitly, I myself learned it from Stick, and I don't recall seeing
other backgammon authors stating any rule of this sort before Stick did.

In general I have found this to be an excellent rule. The position
here is a case in point. Against a human you might consider doubling
because you may get a pass. But according to the rollout, it's an
easy take and a big ND. Interestingly, XG 3-ply doubles here.

Over the years, I have found that there is just one important exception
to Stick's rule. Even in a position where you win a lot of gammons, it
can be a double if the following two conditions are satisfied: (1) your
opponent wins very few gammons (~5% or less) and (2) the position is
close to the take/pass borderline. The variant below is a case in
point. Of course, to make use of this exception OTB, you have to
develop a sense for when such a position is close to the take/pass
borderline.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.31% (G:30.57% B:5.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.69% (G:5.11% B:0.23%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.78% (G:31.85% B:11.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.22% (G:5.15% B:0.28%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.791
Double/Take: +0.704 (-0.087)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.209)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.8%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.778..+0.804)
Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+0.682..+0.726)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-baBBCBB-----B--bd-cbB-a--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 151 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 79.33% (G:31.21% B:4.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.67% (G:3.43% B:0.16%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.03% (G:33.42% B:12.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.97% (G:3.53% B:0.33%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.935 (-0.065)
Double/Take: +1.055 (+0.055)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.924..+0.947)
Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+1.033..+1.076)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: A good rule that I learned from Stick

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: A good rule that I learned from Stick
Date: Wed, 13 Apr 2022 08:56:09 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 13 Apr 2022 12:56 UTC

On 4/13/2022 8:51 AM, I wrote:

> Interestingly, XG 3-ply doubles here.
>
> Over the years, I have found that there is just one important exception
> to Stick's rule.  Even in a position where you win a lot of gammons, it
> can be a double if the following two conditions are satisfied: (1) your
> opponent wins very few gammons (~5% or less) and (2) the position is
> close to the take/pass borderline.  The variant below is a case in
> point.  Of course, to make use of this exception OTB, you have to
> develop a sense for when such a position is close to the take/pass
> borderline.

Oh, I forgot to say one thing. I was the 7-away player here, playing
against XG 3-ply. When it doubled, I assumed that it was probably close
to the take/pass borderline because otherwise XG 3-ply wouldn't double
in such a gammonish position. Not having a good sense myself for
whether it was a take, I passed, figuring that it would be a small error
at worst. But XG overturned its own verdict upon rollout.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: A good rule that I learned from Stick

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Subject: Re: Rollout: A good rule that I learned from Stick
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 20 Apr 2022 20:08 UTC

On Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:51:40 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-baBBCB-A--A-B--bd-cbB-a--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X O |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | O | | O |
> | O | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X X X O |
> | X X | | X X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 128 O: 151 X-O: 4-0/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Stick's rule for 3-away/many-away cube actions is, the 3-away player
> should not double when gammons are still possible, because you'll
> usually be either too good or not good enough. Doubling reduces the
> value of your own gammons and gives your opponent an opportunity to
> win 8 points by winning a redoubled gammon.
>
> While others surely were aware of this rule, implicitly if not
> explicitly, I myself learned it from Stick, and I don't recall seeing
> other backgammon authors stating any rule of this sort before Stick did.
>
> In general I have found this to be an excellent rule. The position
> here is a case in point. Against a human you might consider doubling
> because you may get a pass. But according to the rollout, it's an
> easy take and a big ND. Interestingly, XG 3-ply doubles here.
>
> Over the years, I have found that there is just one important exception
> to Stick's rule. Even in a position where you win a lot of gammons, it
> can be a double if the following two conditions are satisfied: (1) your
> opponent wins very few gammons (~5% or less) and (2) the position is
> close to the take/pass borderline. The variant below is a case in
> point. Of course, to make use of this exception OTB, you have to
> develop a sense for when such a position is close to the take/pass
> borderline.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 74.31% (G:30.57% B:5.31%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 25.69% (G:5.11% B:0.23%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 73.78% (G:31.85% B:11.05%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 26.22% (G:5.15% B:0.28%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.791
> Double/Take: +0.704 (-0.087)
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.209)
>
> Best Cube action: No double / Take
> Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.8%
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.778..+0.804)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+0.682..+0.726)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-baBBCBB-----B--bd-cbB-a--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X O |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | O | | O |
> | O | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X X X X O |
> | X | | X X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 123 O: 151 X-O: 4-0/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 79.33% (G:31.21% B:4.48%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 20.67% (G:3.43% B:0.16%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 78.03% (G:33.42% B:12.19%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 21.97% (G:3.53% B:0.33%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.935 (-0.065)
> Double/Take: +1.055 (+0.055)
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.924..+0.947)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+1.033..+1.076)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

To be specific, the rule is meant for 3a 7a or greater. If you apply it to 3a 6a it will get clunky. It can be in the back of your mind at 3a 6a but it isn't nearly as on point as 3a 7a or greater. It should not be used for 3a 5a or 3a 4a.

Stick

1
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.7
clearnet tor