In the position below, I was basically taking the win for granted and
working to maximise my gammon chances. So I want to be hit on the
ace and aim at the blots.

Why is this a worse idea than adopting Trump's strategy for combatting
coronavirus?

Paul

XGID=aACBBBBB-A----a-a-acabc-b-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 66 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

1. XG Roller+ 7/3 2/1 eq:+1.068
Player: 97.00% (G:13.92% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 3.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

2. XG Roller+ 9/4 eq:+0.984 (-0.084)
Player: 92.90% (G:15.19% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 7.10% (G:0.96% B:0.03%)

3. 4-ply 9/5 2/1 eq:+1.064 (-0.004)
Player: 96.50% (G:14.57% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 3.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

4. 2-ply 5/4 5/1 eq:+0.826 (-0.242)
Player: 89.66% (G:7.15% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 10.34% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)

5. 2-ply 9/5 7/6 eq:+0.681 (-0.387)
Player: 80.91% (G:17.00% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 19.09% (G:4.36% B:0.11%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

On 4/16/2022 1:22 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> In the position below, I was basically taking the win for granted and
> working to maximise my gammon chances. So I want to be hit on the
> ace and aim at the blots.

Your opponent's forward position is still strong enough that you could
lose the priming battle if you're hit. Compare with the variant below.

XGID=aACBBBBB-A----a-a-acababb-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 66 O: 92 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 7/3 2/1 eq:+1.062
Player: 97.41% (G:12.14% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 2.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+1.059..+1.064) - [60.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/4 eq:+1.061
Player: 95.53% (G:15.88% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 4.47% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+1.058..+1.064) - [39.5%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/5 2/1 eq:+1.053 (-0.009)
Player: 96.92% (G:12.58% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 3.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+1.051..+1.055) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

On Saturday, April 16, 2022 at 1:22:56 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> In the position below, I was basically taking the win for granted and
> working to maximise my gammon chances. So I want to be hit on the
> ace and aim at the blots.
>
> Why is this a worse idea than adopting Trump's strategy for combatting
> coronavirus?
>
> Paul
>
> XGID=aACBBBBB-A----a-a-acabc-b-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O O | | O O O O O | +---+
> | | | O O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X X X X X |
> | X X | | X X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 66 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 41
>
> 1. XG Roller+ 7/3 2/1 eq:+1.068
> Player: 97.00% (G:13.92% B:0.07%)
> Opponent: 3.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
>
> 2. XG Roller+ 9/4 eq:+0.984 (-0.084)
> Player: 92.90% (G:15.19% B:0.49%)
> Opponent: 7.10% (G:0.96% B:0.03%)
>
> 3. 4-ply 9/5 2/1 eq:+1.064 (-0.004)
> Player: 96.50% (G:14.57% B:0.09%)
> Opponent: 3.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
>
> 4. 2-ply 5/4 5/1 eq:+0.826 (-0.242)
> Player: 89.66% (G:7.15% B:0.09%)
> Opponent: 10.34% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
>
> 5. 2-ply 9/5 7/6 eq:+0.681 (-0.387)
> Player: 80.91% (G:17.00% B:0.53%)
> Opponent: 19.09% (G:4.36% B:0.11%)
>
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I see people do this a lot. Try too hard to get a second checker when getting a second checker isn't a realistic thing to do. How are you going to accomplish that here for example? The opponent has to throw a non covering ace [31 51], you have to hit said checker, then he needs to not anchor more or less. And this needs to happen _right now_ as you're out of time next turn, you'll have to cover.

There exist many problems with this depending on the position. There is an ever so small chance of you muddling it up and getting counter primed here.. Not really a worry but a faint possibility. One thing people take for granted is that when they are hit immediately (as they wanted) and they don't pick up the extra checker (which is most likely to happen here) then the opponent gets to play all their checkers into their home board meaning you miss out on the gammons you would have got by simply closing them out now.

In your specific position for example, if you were to close the opponent out and have all your spares in the best spot you would win about 16% gammons.. If you mess around and let him get all his checkers into his inner board now of course you're down to 2.5% gammons.

Lastly, when you're out of time like you are in your example, you need to close the board up before you fuck it up. There will be scenarios if you don't close it when you can when you'll roll awkward to really awkward numbers meaning you'll have to pre-clear points to avoid leaving a shot which further diminishes your gammons or you can even roll shot leaving numbers altogether sometimes trying to get cute.

Stick