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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Suspected crime by Isight -- the defence and prosecution

Suspected crime by Isight -- the defence and prosecution

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Subject: Suspected crime by Isight -- the defence and prosecution
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Wed, 20 Apr 2022 21:22 UTC

Although XG sees a fairly solid redouble (both by rollout and analysis),
I make the Isight counts 57 and 63 so a (wrong) hold here (but a
correct initial double).
OTB, I wouldn't consider doubling here.

Case for the prosection: A clear redouble is missed!

Case for the defence: The only reason we're even talking about
this position is the extreme stupidity of XG's opponent, Daniel.
I submit to you that he made a series of cowardly and malicious blunders
to avoid shotleaving, and showed callous and utter disregard of his
grotesquely high stacks on his low points. Isight wouldn't consider
such depravity and didn't contemplate such a scenario while reviewing
its data. Furthermore, Isight gets the initial double and take both
correct.

Paul

XGID=-FC-ABB---A---a-----bbcdc-:1:-1:-1:00:0:2:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

Score is X:2 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 49 O: 48 X-O: 2-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 74.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.490, Double=+0.979

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.774 (-0.067)
Redouble/Take: +0.841
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.159)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.772..+0.777)
Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+0.837..+0.846)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Subject	Author
Suspected crime by Isight -- the defence and prosecution	peps...@gmail.com