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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Doublets are supposed to be lucky

SubjectAuthor
* Doublets are supposed to be luckyTimothy Chow
+- Re: Doublets are supposed to be luckypeps...@gmail.com
`* Rollout: Doublets are supposed to be luckyTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Doublets are supposed to be luckyStick Rice

1
Doublets are supposed to be lucky

<t3rmcs$dbf$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Doublets are supposed to be lucky
Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2022 09:32:11 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 21 Apr 2022 13:32 UTC

XGID=-BAB-bCBB-bBa--a-bbcb-A---:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X O X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X O X X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

Re: Doublets are supposed to be lucky

<0a4df4cf-110e-472a-9555-fe0e29829d2dn@googlegroups.com>

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Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2022 10:14:59 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: Doublets are supposed to be lucky
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 21 Apr 2022 17:14 UTC

On Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 2:32:14 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BAB-bCBB-bBa--a-bbcb-A---:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O O | | O O X |
> | O O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | X O X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
> | O X O X X | | X O X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 102 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 44

11/7(2) 8/4(2). We are big underdogs. Our main winning parlay is to quickly roll a 6 and hope that either the 6 lets us hit or
that we can avoid being hit while we cash in our racing lead.
Keeping the 11 point rather than breaking it seems to just make our game more difficult -- just an extra difficult point to clear.
So 11/7(2). Although we have a racing lead, many of our wins come from hitting so we do well to strengthen our board with
8/4(2).

Paul

Rollout: Doublets are supposed to be lucky

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Doublets are supposed to be lucky
Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2022 08:41:54 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 24 Apr 2022 12:41 UTC

XGID=-BAB-bCBB-bBa--a-bbcb-A---:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X O X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| O X O X X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

Paul is in good company with his play of 11/7(2) 8/4(2), because
that's what XG 3-ply plays too. However, a rollout overturns that
judgment. I believe that the reason is that giving up the 11pt
gives O too much free rein to flood the outfield and contain X's
straggler. Even given that, though, I'm a little surprised that
XG volunteers a blot on the 7pt with 8/4(2) 7/3 6/2 instead of
playing 8/4(2) 7/3(2).

1. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 7/3 6/2 eq:-0.182
Player: 35.75% (G:12.58% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 64.25% (G:10.39% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.191..-0.174) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 7/3(2) eq:-0.227 (-0.045)
Player: 34.12% (G:10.96% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 65.88% (G:10.24% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.236..-0.218) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/7 11/3 6/2 eq:-0.259 (-0.077)
Player: 32.45% (G:10.38% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 67.55% (G:7.28% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.267..-0.251) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/7(2) 8/4(2) eq:-0.260 (-0.078)
Player: 31.90% (G:11.06% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 68.10% (G:5.54% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.269..-0.252) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Doublets are supposed to be lucky

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Doublets are supposed to be lucky
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 25 Apr 2022 20:58 UTC

On Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 8:41:57 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BAB-bCBB-bBa--a-bbcb-A---:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O O | | O O X |
> | O O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | X O X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
> | O X O X X | | X O X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 102 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 44
> Paul is in good company with his play of 11/7(2) 8/4(2), because
> that's what XG 3-ply plays too. However, a rollout overturns that
> judgment. I believe that the reason is that giving up the 11pt
> gives O too much free rein to flood the outfield and contain X's
> straggler. Even given that, though, I'm a little surprised that
> XG volunteers a blot on the 7pt with 8/4(2) 7/3 6/2 instead of
> playing 8/4(2) 7/3(2).
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 7/3 6/2 eq:-0.182
> Player: 35.75% (G:12.58% B:0.10%)
> Opponent: 64.25% (G:10.39% B:0.37%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.191..-0.174) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 7/3(2) eq:-0.227 (-0.045)
> Player: 34.12% (G:10.96% B:0.10%)
> Opponent: 65.88% (G:10.24% B:0.38%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.236..-0.218) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 11/7 11/3 6/2 eq:-0.259 (-0.077)
> Player: 32.45% (G:10.38% B:0.06%)
> Opponent: 67.55% (G:7.28% B:0.22%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.267..-0.251) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 11/7(2) 8/4(2) eq:-0.260 (-0.078)
> Player: 31.90% (G:11.06% B:0.08%)
> Opponent: 68.10% (G:5.54% B:0.16%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.269..-0.252) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

4(2) 3(2) doesn't make the 5 point board and leaves a slightly more inflexible position that maybe never makes the 5 point board. And XG leaves the blot because it's hardly any shots. On a lot (most) twos the opponent shouldn't hit.

Stick

1
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