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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold the front page)

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* A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold thepeps...@gmail.com
`* Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, holdTimothy Chow
 `* Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, holdpeps...@gmail.com
  `* Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, holdTimothy Chow
   `* Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, holdTimothy Chow
    +- Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, holdpeps...@gmail.com
    +- Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, holdpeps...@gmail.com
    `- Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, holdTimothy Chow

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A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold the front page)

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Subject: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold the
front page)
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Fri, 22 Apr 2022 21:53 UTC

XGID=bBBBBBB--------AbbcccB----:1:1:1:00:0:4:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X |
| O O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 138 X-O: 0-4
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold the front page)

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold
the front page)
Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2022 16:30:11 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 23 Apr 2022 20:30 UTC

On 4/22/2022 5:53 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> XGID=bBBBBBB--------AbbcccB----:1:1:1:00:0:4:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:0 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O O X |
> | O O O | | O O X |
> | O | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | O | |
> | | | | +---+
> | | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
> | | | X X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 99 O: 138 X-O: 0-4
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

There are a lot of positions that look similar to this one, but
small changes can make a big difference to the evaluation, so I
would hesitate to call this position "standard."

It looks like D/P to me. If X rolls an immediate 6 then clearly
O's position is a massive drop and possibly TG for X. But what
if X doesn't roll a 6? It will typically take X a couple of rolls
to start crunching his board, and even then O might not enter for
a while. All this gives X extra time to roll a 6, and once he
rolls a 6, he has more time to roll another 6. And even if things
turn around, O has work to do. She has only a two-point board,
and X will generally still have a reasonably strong board even if
he has started to crunch. If O hits loose and X hits back, then
X can quickly regain the upper hand. Given that X wins a lot of
gammons from this position, I don't think O can take.

On the other hand, it also doesn't look TG to me. If X doesn't
roll an immediate 6 then it might no longer be a pass.

---
Tim Chow

Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold the front page)

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Subject: Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold
the front page)
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 23 Apr 2022 20:33 UTC

On Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 9:30:16 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 4/22/2022 5:53 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > XGID=bBBBBBB--------AbbcccB----:1:1:1:00:0:4:3:0:10
> > X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:4. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O O | | O O X |
> > | O O O | | O O X |
> > | O | | O O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | | +---+
> > | | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
> > | | | X X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 99 O: 138 X-O: 0-4
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> There are a lot of positions that look similar to this one, but
> small changes can make a big difference to the evaluation, so I
> would hesitate to call this position "standard."
>
> It looks like D/P to me. If X rolls an immediate 6 then clearly
> O's position is a massive drop and possibly TG for X. But what
> if X doesn't roll a 6? It will typically take X a couple of rolls
> to start crunching his board, and even then O might not enter for
> a while. All this gives X extra time to roll a 6, and once he
> rolls a 6, he has more time to roll another 6. And even if things
> turn around, O has work to do. She has only a two-point board,
> and X will generally still have a reasonably strong board even if
> he has started to crunch. If O hits loose and X hits back, then
> X can quickly regain the upper hand. Given that X wins a lot of
> gammons from this position, I don't think O can take.
>
> On the other hand, it also doesn't look TG to me. If X doesn't
> roll an immediate 6 then it might no longer be a pass.

Can you be a bit more specific about which rolls you see as market gainers?

Paul

Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold the front page)

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold
the front page)
Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2022 16:46:36 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 23 Apr 2022 20:46 UTC

On 4/23/2022 4:33 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Can you be a bit more specific about which rolls you see as market gainers?

Not sure exactly, but certainly 55, and probably if X rolls
a 9 or an 8. What if X rolls a 6 or a 7? I don't know. These
types of positions are typically very sensitive to moving the
outfield checker by just a couple of pips, so it's hard to be
confident.

MCG had a GammonVillage article or two about these types of
closeout-v-fiveprime positions. As I recall, he focused on
positions with 1 checker back and 1 checker closed out, so one
would have to be cautious about making inferences about positions
like this one with 2 checkers back and 2 checkers closed out, but
what I remember is that if you had one spare as far back as possible
then it was a pass, and if you moved it around to be close to the
home board then it was a take. But the crossover point could
depend sensitively on other seemingly "minor" features of the
position.

---
Tim Chow

Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold the front page)

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold
the front page)
Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2022 17:52:59 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 23 Apr 2022 21:52 UTC

On 4/23/2022 4:46 PM, I wrote:
> MCG had a GammonVillage article or two about these types of
> closeout-v-fiveprime positions.  As I recall, he focused on
> positions with 1 checker back and 1 checker closed out, so one
> would have to be cautious about making inferences about positions
> like this one with 2 checkers back and 2 checkers closed out

I just went to the GammonVillage website to re-read MCG's article.
However, I couldn't find it. I don't know if the website has just
been reorganized, or if the online magazine has been discontinued.
Luckily, I saved a copy of MCG's article, so you can read it here
(not formatted very well, but legible):

http://alum.mit.edu/www/tchow/cg/mcg10.pdf

I guess GammonVillage owns the copyright to this article, so if they
complain, I'll take it down. But in the meantime, I see that I
failed to remember that MCG considered almost exactly your position
in the article. If you scroll to the very end of the article, you'll
see what I mean.

---
Tim Chow

Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold the front page)

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Subject: Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold
the front page)
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 24 Apr 2022 10:23 UTC

On Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 10:53:04 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 4/23/2022 4:46 PM, I wrote:
> > MCG had a GammonVillage article or two about these types of
> > closeout-v-fiveprime positions. As I recall, he focused on
> > positions with 1 checker back and 1 checker closed out, so one
> > would have to be cautious about making inferences about positions
> > like this one with 2 checkers back and 2 checkers closed out
> I just went to the GammonVillage website to re-read MCG's article.
> However, I couldn't find it. I don't know if the website has just
> been reorganized, or if the online magazine has been discontinued.
> Luckily, I saved a copy of MCG's article, so you can read it here
> (not formatted very well, but legible):
>
> http://alum.mit.edu/www/tchow/cg/mcg10.pdf
>
> I guess GammonVillage owns the copyright to this article, so if they
> complain, I'll take it down. But in the meantime, I see that I
> failed to remember that MCG considered almost exactly your position
> in the article. If you scroll to the very end of the article, you'll
> see what I mean.

Thanks for this. I'm reading the article too.
I disagree with this: "With a checker on the 16 and a checker on the 4, we have a definite
take. What happened? It isn't obvious."
But it's very obvious (to me). Firstly, the action didn't move a trillion light years.
We went from an ultra-marginal drop/take to a 0.961 take.
But why did we move at all? Well, duh! It's all about the EPC.
A checker on the 10 point is likely to move off the board with less wastage than a checker on the 4 point.
So 16/4 gives us less timing, not much less (perhaps a fraction of a pip) but 0.04 isn't terribly large here.
Some things are mysterious (for example human consciousness) but I don't think this particular piece
of variantizing is one of them.

Wow, the final position is uncannily similar. It certainly vindicates your view that, if we don't roll a 6, we often gain
market and very often can't even double.
However, the position is actually TG, according to XG's rollout. I did keep XG's rollout but it's on another computer.
I'll show it to you later.

Paul

Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold the front page)

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Subject: Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold
the front page)
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 26 Apr 2022 07:14 UTC

On Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 10:53:04 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 4/23/2022 4:46 PM, I wrote:
> > MCG had a GammonVillage article or two about these types of
> > closeout-v-fiveprime positions. As I recall, he focused on
> > positions with 1 checker back and 1 checker closed out, so one
> > would have to be cautious about making inferences about positions
> > like this one with 2 checkers back and 2 checkers closed out
> I just went to the GammonVillage website to re-read MCG's article.
> However, I couldn't find it. I don't know if the website has just
> been reorganized, or if the online magazine has been discontinued.
> Luckily, I saved a copy of MCG's article, so you can read it here
> (not formatted very well, but legible):
>
> http://alum.mit.edu/www/tchow/cg/mcg10.pdf
>
> I guess GammonVillage owns the copyright to this article, so if they
> complain, I'll take it down. But in the meantime, I see that I
> failed to remember that MCG considered almost exactly your position
> in the article. If you scroll to the very end of the article, you'll
> see what I mean.

I think it's a weakness in the article that TG isn't mentioned at all.
Here is the rollout. Although the position is TG, I wouldn't say the
rollout is TG -- in fact, it may not be G enough. I didn't do anything with the
settings.

Paul

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 69.78% (G:50.92% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.22% (G:4.95% B:0.17%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.13% (G:51.24% B:0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.87% (G:5.05% B:0.18%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.857, Double=+1.732

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +1.045
Redouble/Take: +1.459 (+0.414)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.045)

Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 9.8%

Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold the front page)

<t48ugs$muk$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: A standard position but I still got it wrong (Shock, horror, hold
the front page)
Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2022 10:10:35 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 26 Apr 2022 14:10 UTC

On 4/23/2022 5:52 PM, I wrote:
> I just went to the GammonVillage website to re-read MCG's article.
> However, I couldn't find it.  I don't know if the website has just
> been reorganized, or if the online magazine has been discontinued.

It turns out that the website was reorganized. Here's the link, for
those who have a GV subscription.

https://www.gammonvillage.com/backgammon/magazine/article_display.cfm?resourceid=6259

I don't think that there has been any fresh content for a while, so
I wouldn't be surprised if they discontinue the magazine at some point.

---
Tim Chow

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