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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 22 to play

SubjectAuthor
* 22 to playTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: 22 to playTimothy Chow

1
22 to play

<t4fmfl$ohj$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 22 to play
Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2022 23:36:20 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 29 Apr 2022 03:36 UTC

XGID=---abBEBB---cB-Aab-bbb--A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 22 to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 22 to play
Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2022 18:14:28 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 30 Apr 2022 22:14 UTC

XGID=---abBEBB---cB-Aab-bbb--A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

Of the four plays rolled out below, I considered three OTB, but did not
consider XG's preferred play of 24/22 15/13 5/3*(2). Switching the 5pt
for the 3pt when O has a 4pt anchor is an unusual play, but becomes more
understandable when we recognize that one of X's top priorities is to
escape his back checker, and a tempo hit is useful toward that end. But
see also the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 15/13 5/3*(2) eq:+0.003
Player: 50.07% (G:13.19% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 49.93% (G:12.57% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.011..+0.017) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/7 eq:-0.053 (-0.056)
Player: 48.20% (G:12.58% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 51.80% (G:11.31% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.066..-0.040) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/3*(2) eq:-0.093 (-0.096)
Player: 46.80% (G:14.85% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 53.20% (G:12.68% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.108..-0.077) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) eq:-0.119 (-0.122)
Player: 46.36% (G:13.17% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 53.64% (G:12.74% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.134..-0.105) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---abBEBB---cB-A-b-cbb--A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 15/13 5/3*(2) eq:+0.064
Player: 51.59% (G:12.84% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 48.41% (G:12.79% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.051..+0.077) - [82.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/7 eq:+0.055 (-0.009)
Player: 51.66% (G:12.07% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 48.34% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.043..+0.066) - [14.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) eq:+0.048 (-0.016)
Player: 51.55% (G:12.94% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 48.45% (G:12.62% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.035..+0.062) - [3.5%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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