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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit 2?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit 2?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit 2?Timothy Chow

1
Hit 2?

<t4gl26$a3e$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8733&group=rec.games.backgammon#8733

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit 2?
Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2022 08:18:12 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 29 Apr 2022 12:18 UTC

Subject line not to be confused with "Hit? 2".

XGID=-a--a-E-C--BcDAa-babbb----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit 2?

<t4n72a$kph$1@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8759&group=rec.games.backgammon#8759

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit 2?
Date: Sun, 1 May 2022 20:02:16 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 2 May 2022 00:02 UTC

XGID=-a--a-E-C--BcDAa-babbb----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

I hit twice, as does XG 3-ply, but the rollout deems the double hit a
blunder. Hitting twice does give O a few more return shots, both right
away and on the next turn (if X does not cover), and O's offensive
position is pretty strong. But see the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 14/9 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.396
Player: 60.62% (G:8.67% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 39.38% (G:7.83% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.387..+0.406) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/4* 6/1*(2) eq:+0.314 (-0.082)
Player: 56.81% (G:18.16% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 43.19% (G:11.60% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.301..+0.327) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--a-E-C--BcDAa-b-bbba---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 14/4* 6/1*(2) eq:+0.421
Player: 59.14% (G:19.97% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 40.86% (G:11.86% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.414..+0.427) - [98.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/9 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.411 (-0.009)
Player: 60.93% (G:10.11% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 39.07% (G:8.54% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.406..+0.416) - [1.4%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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