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interests / rec.games.backgammon / PoH and then...?

SubjectAuthor
* PoH and then...?Timothy Chow
+- Re: PoH and then...?peps...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: PoH and then...?Timothy Chow

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PoH and then...?

<t4ol6c$h3f$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!paganini.bofh.team!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: PoH and then...?
Date: Mon, 2 May 2022 09:09:31 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 2 May 2022 13:09 UTC

XGID=--ab-ED-C-BAa-----bbbbc---:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

Re: PoH and then...?

<f728ccdc-3839-448a-8e31-649981a9a179n@googlegroups.com>

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Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
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Subject: Re: PoH and then...?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Mon, 2 May 2022 21:24 UTC

On Monday, May 2, 2022 at 2:09:34 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=--ab-ED-C-BAa-----bbbbc---:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O O O | +---+
> | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X |
> | X | | X X |
> | X X | | X X O |
> | O X X X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 104 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 44

Sorry but my only candidate play is 6/2*(2) 5/1(2).
Why is this play less tasty than those egregious Hershey
bars they sell (or used to) in the US?

Paul

Rollout: PoH and then...?

<t4u15t$8nf$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: PoH and then...?
Date: Wed, 4 May 2022 10:04:43 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 4 May 2022 14:04 UTC

XGID=--ab-ED-C-BAa-----bbbbc---:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44

There's no reason not to PoH, but then do you play 8/4(2), 5/1(2),
or 10/6(2)? Making the 4pt clearly has the strongest upside, since
leaving a gap on the 4pt is just asking for trouble later, but is
it worth giving O four hitting rolls from the bar? Definitely,
says XG. If we strengthen O's already formidable offensive position
(see variant below) then XG says the decision is much closer, but
it still favors 8/4(2).

1. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 6/2*(2) eq:+0.593
Player: 76.64% (G:17.65% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 23.36% (G:3.12% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.587..+0.600) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/2*(2) 5/1(2) eq:+0.501 (-0.092)
Player: 73.35% (G:14.58% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 26.65% (G:2.73% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.495..+0.507) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/2*(2) eq:+0.485 (-0.109)
Player: 73.70% (G:11.54% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 26.30% (G:2.47% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.479..+0.491) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--ab-ED-C-BA------bbbbbb--:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 44

1. Rollout¹ 8/4(2) 6/2*(2) eq:+0.509
Player: 74.95% (G:11.31% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 25.05% (G:4.97% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.503..+0.514) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/2*(2) eq:+0.490 (-0.018)
Player: 74.84% (G:6.97% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 25.16% (G:2.00% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.485..+0.496) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/2*(2) 5/1(2) eq:+0.474 (-0.034)
Player: 73.18% (G:9.86% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 26.82% (G:2.63% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.469..+0.479) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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