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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Make the 5pt and then...?

SubjectAuthor
* Make the 5pt and then...?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Make the 5pt and then...?Timothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: Make the 5pt and then...?atila...@gmail.com
  `- Re: Rollout: Make the 5pt and then...?Timothy Chow

1
Make the 5pt and then...?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Make the 5pt and then...?
Date: Tue, 3 May 2022 09:48:20 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 3 May 2022 13:48 UTC

XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-c-bbB--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Make the 5pt and then...?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Make the 5pt and then...?
Date: Thu, 5 May 2022 08:14:04 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 5 May 2022 12:14 UTC

XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-c-bbB--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

Usually in a blitz, making home-board points is a high priority,
and escaping the back checkers is a low priority. So after 8/5,
I played 9/3 6/3. However, XG says that's a whopper, and that
it is mandatory to play 8/5 23/20(2) 13/10. This surprised me,
because O's broken prime didn't look particularly formidable to
me, but it is true that X does not have a lot of spare pips to
play after 8/5 9/3 6/3. For comparison, see the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+1.112
Player: 79.84% (G:63.41% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 20.16% (G:4.56% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.106..+1.118) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 8/5(2) eq:+1.013 (-0.099)
Player: 77.94% (G:58.47% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 22.06% (G:4.65% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.007..+1.019) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/20 13/10(2) 8/5 eq:+1.008 (-0.104)
Player: 77.06% (G:62.15% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 22.94% (G:6.77% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.001..+1.014) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.999 (-0.113)
Player: 76.78% (G:60.72% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 23.22% (G:5.31% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.991..+1.007) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-cb-b-B-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 24/21(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+0.979
Player: 76.28% (G:60.89% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 23.72% (G:6.18% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.975..+0.983) - [95.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.975 (-0.004)
Player: 76.05% (G:60.88% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 23.95% (G:6.52% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.971..+0.978) - [5.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7 8/5 eq:+0.922 (-0.057)
Player: 74.76% (G:60.62% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 25.24% (G:8.44% B:1.10%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.919..+0.926) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/10(2) 8/5 eq:+0.910 (-0.070)
Player: 74.35% (G:59.43% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 25.65% (G:7.57% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.906..+0.913) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Make the 5pt and then...?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Make the 5pt and then...?
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Fri, 6 May 2022 10:09 UTC

5 Mayıs 2022 Perşembe tarihinde saat 15:15:03 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-c-bbB--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O X | +---+
> | X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
> | O | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | O | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 126 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 33
> Usually in a blitz, making home-board points is a high priority,
> and escaping the back checkers is a low priority. So after 8/5,
> I played 9/3 6/3. However, XG says that's a whopper, and that
> it is mandatory to play 8/5 23/20(2) 13/10. This surprised me,
> because O's broken prime didn't look particularly formidable to
> me, but it is true that X does not have a lot of spare pips to
> play after 8/5 9/3 6/3. For comparison, see the variant below.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+1.112
> Player: 79.84% (G:63.41% B:0.45%)
> Opponent: 20.16% (G:4.56% B:0.32%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.106..+1.118) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 8/5(2) eq:+1.013 (-0.099)
> Player: 77.94% (G:58.47% B:0.43%)
> Opponent: 22.06% (G:4.65% B:0.26%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.007..+1.019) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 23/20 13/10(2) 8/5 eq:+1.008 (-0.104)
> Player: 77.06% (G:62.15% B:0.45%)
> Opponent: 22.94% (G:6.77% B:0.74%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.001..+1.014) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.999 (-0.113)
> Player: 76.78% (G:60.72% B:0.37%)
> Opponent: 23.22% (G:5.31% B:0.31%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.991..+1.007) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=bBB--AC-BA--cB---c-cb-b-B-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O X | +---+
> | X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
> | O | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | O | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 128 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 33
> 1. Rollout¹ 24/21(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+0.979
> Player: 76.28% (G:60.89% B:0.43%)
> Opponent: 23.72% (G:6.18% B:0.41%)
> Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.975..+0.983) - [95.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+0.975 (-0.004)
> Player: 76.05% (G:60.88% B:0.39%)
> Opponent: 23.95% (G:6.52% B:0.49%)
> Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.971..+0.978) - [5.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7 8/5 eq:+0.922 (-0.057)
> Player: 74.76% (G:60.62% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 25.24% (G:8.44% B:1.10%)
> Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.919..+0.926) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/10(2) 8/5 eq:+0.910 (-0.070)
> Player: 74.35% (G:59.43% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 25.65% (G:7.57% B:0.64%)
> Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.906..+0.913) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
First of all, thanks for sharing. I disagree that escaping the back checker is a low priority in a blitz. There are two different dice to escape, 5 and 3 in the original position, whereas in the variant this number is three. In summary, I think escaping the back checker is important

Re: Rollout: Make the 5pt and then...?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Make the 5pt and then...?
Date: Fri, 6 May 2022 08:59:15 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 6 May 2022 12:59 UTC

On 5/6/2022 6:09 AM, atila...@gmail.com wrote:
> First of all, thanks for sharing. I disagree that escaping the back checker is a low priority in a blitz. There are two different dice to escape, 5 and 3 in the original position, whereas in the variant this number is three. In summary, I think escaping the back checker is important

In this particular position, I agree with you. X does not have a
lot of time to roll a 5 or a 3, and risks crunching. When I said
that escaping the back checkers is a low priority in a blitz, I
meant that as a general principle that is usually true. Even in
this position, it doesn't take much of a modification to get the
computer to prefer making the 3pt to escaping. See the variant
below for example.

XGID=bBB--AC-AAA-cB---c-c-bbB--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 9/3 8/5 6/3 eq:+1.033
Player: 77.67% (G:62.03% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 22.33% (G:5.11% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.025..+1.040) - [98.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 13/10 8/5 eq:+1.022 (-0.011)
Player: 78.06% (G:58.76% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 21.94% (G:4.72% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+1.015..+1.028) - [1.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/20(2) 10/7 8/5 eq:+1.013 (-0.019)
Player: 77.91% (G:58.45% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 22.09% (G:4.65% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.007..+1.020) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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