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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Containment cube action 2

SubjectAuthor
* Containment cube action 2Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Containment cube action 2Timothy Chow

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Containment cube action 2

<t50f3k$qra$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8793&group=rec.games.backgammon#8793

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Containment cube action 2
Date: Thu, 5 May 2022 08:14:44 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 5 May 2022 12:14 UTC

XGID=-B-aBBBBB----------AbBbbh-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | X O X O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | 8 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 50 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Containment cube action 2

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Containment cube action 2
Date: Sat, 7 May 2022 19:51:07 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 7 May 2022 23:51 UTC

XGID=-B-aBBBBB----------AbBbbh-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | X O X O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | 8 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 50 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

With O having so many dead checkers and at risk of exposing another
blot, I thought this one was a pass. But X also has two dead checkers
on the 1pt, and I underestimated how bad those were. See variant.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 71.95% (G:9.85% B:0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.05% (G:6.78% B:0.01%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.34% (G:9.75% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.66% (G:6.33% B:0.01%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.768 (-0.079)
Redouble/Take: +0.847
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.153)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.761..+0.775)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.837..+0.858)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BaBBBBB----------AbBbbh-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | X O X O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | 8 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 50 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 77.80% (G:12.32% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.20% (G:6.71% B:0.01%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.13% (G:13.59% B:0.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.87% (G:7.70% B:0.02%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.878 (-0.122)
Redouble/Take: +1.215 (+0.215)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.873..+0.884)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.205..+1.226)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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