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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Hit 2? 2

SubjectAuthor
* Hit 2? 2Timothy Chow
+- Re: Hit 2? 2atila...@gmail.com
`* Rollout: Hit 2? 2Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Hit 2? 2Stick Rice

1
Hit 2? 2

<t5378i$43r$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit 2? 2
Date: Fri, 6 May 2022 09:19:13 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 6 May 2022 13:19 UTC

XGID=--a-a-D-D-B-dB--Ad-da-A--A:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit 2? 2

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Subject: Re: Hit 2? 2
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Sat, 7 May 2022 09:28 UTC

6 Mayıs 2022 Cuma tarihinde saat 16:19:16 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=--a-a-D-D-B-dB--Ad-da-A--A:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X X | | X |
> | O X X | | X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 165 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 54
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
O's 4s are very decisive

Rollout: Hit 2? 2

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit 2? 2
Date: Sun, 8 May 2022 17:14:11 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 8 May 2022 21:14 UTC

XGID=--a-a-D-D-B-dB--Ad-da-A--A:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

Hitting twice seemed natural to me, but at some point in a blot-hitting
contest, it may be better to consolidate your advantage than to risk
losing it by continuing to hit. Here, I think I underestimated the
value of buttoning up on the 16pt (see variant for comparison).

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20* 20/16 eq:+0.464
Player: 61.55% (G:14.07% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 38.45% (G:8.95% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.449..+0.480) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20* 8/4* eq:+0.370 (-0.095)
Player: 58.40% (G:17.60% B:1.01%)
Opponent: 41.60% (G:10.07% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.353..+0.387) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--a-a-D-D-B-dB-A-d-da-A--A:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. XG Roller++ Bar/20* 8/4* eq:+0.372
Player: 58.25% (G:17.70% B:0.91%)
Opponent: 41.75% (G:9.83% B:0.46%)

2. XG Roller++ Bar/20* 20/16 eq:+0.333 (-0.038)
Player: 58.66% (G:14.92% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 41.34% (G:10.16% B:0.40%)

3. XG Roller++ Bar/20* 15/11 eq:+0.320 (-0.052)
Player: 57.85% (G:14.99% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 42.15% (G:9.35% B:0.35%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Hit 2? 2

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Hit 2? 2
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Fri, 13 May 2022 04:02 UTC

On Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 5:14:25 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=--a-a-D-D-B-dB--Ad-da-A--A:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X X | | X |
> | O X X | | X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 165 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 54
> Hitting twice seemed natural to me, but at some point in a blot-hitting
> contest, it may be better to consolidate your advantage than to risk
> losing it by continuing to hit. Here, I think I underestimated the
> value of buttoning up on the 16pt (see variant for comparison).
>
> 1. Rollout¹ Bar/20* 20/16 eq:+0.464
> Player: 61.55% (G:14.07% B:0.69%)
> Opponent: 38.45% (G:8.95% B:0.32%)
> Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.449..+0.480) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ Bar/20* 8/4* eq:+0.370 (-0.095)
> Player: 58.40% (G:17.60% B:1.01%)
> Opponent: 41.60% (G:10.07% B:0.48%)
> Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.353..+0.387) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=--a-a-D-D-B-dB-A-d-da-A--A:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X X | | X |
> | O X X | | X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 164 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 54
> 1. XG Roller++ Bar/20* 8/4* eq:+0.372
> Player: 58.25% (G:17.70% B:0.91%)
> Opponent: 41.75% (G:9.83% B:0.46%)
>
> 2. XG Roller++ Bar/20* 20/16 eq:+0.333 (-0.038)
> Player: 58.66% (G:14.92% B:0.70%)
> Opponent: 41.34% (G:10.16% B:0.40%)
>
> 3. XG Roller++ Bar/20* 15/11 eq:+0.320 (-0.052)
> Player: 57.85% (G:14.99% B:0.64%)
> Opponent: 42.15% (G:9.35% B:0.35%)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The difference in plays isn't nearly as much as your rollout indicates. Variance really at work.

Stick

1
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