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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 55 to play

SubjectAuthor
* 55 to playTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: 55 to playTimothy Chow

1
55 to play

<t570hn$i9v$1@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8815&group=rec.games.backgammon#8815

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 55 to play
Date: Sat, 7 May 2022 19:49:09 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 7 May 2022 23:49 UTC

XGID=--BA--DB--a-cBc--b-ccB-AA-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 55 to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 55 to play
Date: Mon, 9 May 2022 22:47:22 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 10 May 2022 02:47 UTC

XGID=--BA--DB--a-cBc--b-ccB-AA-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

Usually, when we're behind in the pip count, we need to stay back for
more contact. Following that principle, I played 23/3, but XG says I
should have played 23/13 21/16(2). I think the primary reason is that
O has a blot in the outfield that we can harass with 21/16(2); the other
thing is that after the roll, X is not so far behind in the race any
more. For comparison, see the variant below, in which I have moved O's
blot to her 11pt.

1. Rollout¹ 23/13 21/16(2) eq:-0.532
Player: 35.78% (G:5.21% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 64.22% (G:10.44% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.544..-0.521) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/3 eq:-0.619 (-0.086)
Player: 32.37% (G:3.96% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 67.63% (G:6.27% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.630..-0.608) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BA--DB----cBd--b-ccB-AA-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 23/3 eq:-0.356
Player: 29.31% (G:3.04% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 70.69% (G:6.40% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.360..-0.353) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/13 21/16(2) eq:-0.367 (-0.011)
Player: 30.46% (G:3.87% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 69.54% (G:11.38% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.371..-0.364) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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