They're not dangerous to humans if lived alone, and they're the
second largest living rodent. If you do think it's a beaver,
don't be afraid to stand up for them by saying so.

XGID=-bCBBCC-----------abbdbbB-:0:0:1:00:0:7:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:7. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X X X O |
| | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 103 X-O: 0-7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

"lived alone" -> "left alone"

On 5/9/2022 4:33 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> They're not dangerous to humans if lived alone, and they're the
> second largest living rodent. If you do think it's a beaver,
> don't be afraid to stand up for them by saying so.
>
> XGID=-bCBBCC-----------abbdbbB-:0:0:1:00:0:7:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:0 O:7. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O O O O X |
> | | | O O O O O X |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X X |
> | | | X X X X X O |
> | | | X X X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 101 O: 103 X-O: 0-7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

A symmetrical priming position is usually ND/T. This position is
not symmetrical and the biggest difference, namely the blot on O's
7pt, favors X. If X rolls a 6 now then his gammon chances are very
good. I think it should still be a take, though, because if he does
not roll a 6 (or 55) then his position will deteriorate and O will
have good chances. I'd say D/T.

---
Tim Chow

On Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 3:40:38 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 5/9/2022 4:33 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > They're not dangerous to humans if lived alone, and they're the
> > second largest living rodent. If you do think it's a beaver,
> > don't be afraid to stand up for them by saying so.
> >
> > XGID=-bCBBCC-----------abbdbbB-:0:0:1:00:0:7:3:0:10
> > X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:7. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O | | O O O O O X |
> > | | | O O O O O X |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X X X |
> > | | | X X X X X O |
> > | | | X X X X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 101 O: 103 X-O: 0-7
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> A symmetrical priming position is usually ND/T. This position is
> not symmetrical and the biggest difference, namely the blot on O's
> 7pt, favors X. If X rolls a 6 now then his gammon chances are very
> good. I think it should still be a take, though, because if he does
> not roll a 6 (or 55) then his position will deteriorate and O will
> have good chances. I'd say D/T.

I think both Tim and I weren't being sufficiently environmentally friendly, here.
Beavering is only slightly wrong, and should be considered.
It's a big ND/T and double/beaver is better for X than D/T.
I was very surprised, because I was quite confident in my double (although
I was also quite sure about the take.)

Paul

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 55.35% (G:15.49% B:0.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.65% (G:9.35% B:0.39%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 55.49% (G:15.74% B:1.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.51% (G:9.38% B:0.37%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.174, Double=+0.361

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.184
Double/Take: +0.042 (-0.142)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.816)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.176..+0.191)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.028..+0.056)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence: 100.0%

On Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 11:28:11 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 3:40:38 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> > On 5/9/2022 4:33 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > They're not dangerous to humans if lived alone, and they're the
> > > second largest living rodent. If you do think it's a beaver,
> > > don't be afraid to stand up for them by saying so.
> > >
> > > XGID=-bCBBCC-----------abbdbbB-:0:0:1:00:0:7:3:0:10
> > > X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> > >
> > > Score is X:0 O:7. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | O | | O O O O O X |
> > > | | | O O O O O X |
> > > | | | O |
> > > | | | O |
> > > | | | |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | X X X |
> > > | | | X X X X X O |
> > > | | | X X X X X O |
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 101 O: 103 X-O: 0-7
> > > Cube: 1
> > > X on roll, cube action
> > A symmetrical priming position is usually ND/T. This position is
> > not symmetrical and the biggest difference, namely the blot on O's
> > 7pt, favors X. If X rolls a 6 now then his gammon chances are very
> > good. I think it should still be a take, though, because if he does
> > not roll a 6 (or 55) then his position will deteriorate and O will
> > have good chances. I'd say D/T.
> I think both Tim and I weren't being sufficiently environmentally friendly, here.
> Beavering is only slightly wrong, and should be considered.
> It's a big ND/T and double/beaver is better for X than D/T.

I messed up the logic. I meant that double/beaver (while wrong on both sides) is better for O than if X correctly holds.

Paul