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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 4-away/5-away cube action

SubjectAuthor
* 4-away/5-away cube actionTimothy Chow
+- Re: 4-away/5-away cube actionatila...@gmail.com
+- Re: 4-away/5-away cube actionatila...@gmail.com
`* Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube actionTimothy Chow
 +- Re: Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube actionatila...@gmail.com
 `- Re: Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube actionStick Rice

1
4-away/5-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 4-away/5-away cube action
Date: Sun, 15 May 2022 15:40:46 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 15 May 2022 19:40 UTC

XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: 4-away/5-away cube action

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Subject: Re: 4-away/5-away cube action
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Mon, 16 May 2022 18:06 UTC

15 Mayıs 2022 Pazar tarihinde saat 22:40:48 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | O O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

If I were X, I would double without hesitation. All doubles work well and he has an additional 6 rolls to make his bar point, 14 total. He has a good homeboard and enough builders outside.
For O, the conditions are different. Ok, it's not too bad, but the gammon value is quite high at 4a-5a.

Re: 4-away/5-away cube action

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Subject: Re: 4-away/5-away cube action
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Mon, 16 May 2022 18:17 UTC

15 Mayıs 2022 Pazar tarihinde saat 22:40:48 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | O O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
If I were X, I would double without hesitation. All doubles work well and he has an additional 6 rolls to make his bar point, 14 total. He has a good homeboard and enough builders outside.
For O, the conditions are different. Ok, it's not too bad, but the gammon value is quite high at 4a-5a.
The key point is that the mutual gammon values are high. and with two checkers behind there is a high risk

Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube action
Date: Tue, 17 May 2022 06:59:57 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 17 May 2022 10:59 UTC

XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Generally speaking, a mutual holding game where you have a
marginally better anchor and there are no blots lying around
to be picked up, or a priming game in which you have a marginally
better prime, is not a double. But this position is not really
either of those; the salient feature is that O is still stuck on
X's ace point and is somewhat disconnected. There is a risk that
O will be saddled with an ace-point game, which would be a pass.
For money, XG says this is a double and an easy take.

What I was surprised by was that ATS, XG says this is a big pass.
It seems that the position is a lot more gammonish than I thought.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.03% (G:20.94% B:0.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.97% (G:6.39% B:0.29%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.24% (G:21.91% B:1.62%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.76% (G:6.81% B:0.57%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.903 (-0.097)
Double/Take: +1.162 (+0.162)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.897..+0.909)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.152..+1.172)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.38% (G:21.06% B:0.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.62% (G:6.67% B:0.26%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.48% (G:21.83% B:0.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.52% (G:6.51% B:0.28%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.792 (-0.069)
Double/Take: +0.861
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.139)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.779..+0.805)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.844..+0.878)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube action

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube action
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Tue, 17 May 2022 12:49 UTC

17 Mayıs 2022 Salı tarihinde saat 14:00:01 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | O O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Generally speaking, a mutual holding game where you have a
> marginally better anchor and there are no blots lying around
> to be picked up, or a priming game in which you have a marginally
> better prime, is not a double. But this position is not really
> either of those; the salient feature is that O is still stuck on
> X's ace point and is somewhat disconnected. There is a risk that
> O will be saddled with an ace-point game, which would be a pass.
> For money, XG says this is a double and an easy take.
>
> What I was surprised by was that ATS, XG says this is a big pass.
> It seems that the position is a lot more gammonish than I thought.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 69.03% (G:20.94% B:0.95%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.97% (G:6.39% B:0.29%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 69.24% (G:21.91% B:1.62%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.76% (G:6.81% B:0.57%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.903 (-0.097)
> Double/Take: +1.162 (+0.162)
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
> Rollout:
> 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.897..+0.909)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.152..+1.172)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
>
> -----
> Money
> -----
>
> XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | O O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 69.38% (G:21.06% B:0.72%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.62% (G:6.67% B:0.26%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 69.48% (G:21.83% B:0.69%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.52% (G:6.51% B:0.28%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.792 (-0.069)
> Double/Take: +0.861
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.139)
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Take
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.779..+0.805)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.844..+0.878)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
You're right, I was surprised too. I quickly looked at the scores one by one for the 7-point game. D/T looks correct on most scores (except 4a-5a, 4a-4a, 2a-? , 3a-?)
Maybe not enough to say gammonish. Even at the beginning of the game, the gammon percentage is about 15 percent. I hope I remember this position as an important reference.

Re: Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube action

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube action
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 18 May 2022 08:43 UTC

On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:00:01 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | O O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 3-2/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Generally speaking, a mutual holding game where you have a
> marginally better anchor and there are no blots lying around
> to be picked up, or a priming game in which you have a marginally
> better prime, is not a double. But this position is not really
> either of those; the salient feature is that O is still stuck on
> X's ace point and is somewhat disconnected. There is a risk that
> O will be saddled with an ace-point game, which would be a pass.
> For money, XG says this is a double and an easy take.
>
> What I was surprised by was that ATS, XG says this is a big pass.
> It seems that the position is a lot more gammonish than I thought.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 69.03% (G:20.94% B:0.95%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.97% (G:6.39% B:0.29%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 69.24% (G:21.91% B:1.62%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.76% (G:6.81% B:0.57%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.903 (-0.097)
> Double/Take: +1.162 (+0.162)
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
> Rollout:
> 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.897..+0.909)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.152..+1.172)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
>
> -----
> Money
> -----
>
> XGID=-b--BCB-B--B-B--cc-dcB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | O O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 141 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 69.38% (G:21.06% B:0.72%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.62% (G:6.67% B:0.26%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 69.48% (G:21.83% B:0.69%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.52% (G:6.51% B:0.28%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.792 (-0.069)
> Double/Take: +0.861
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.139)
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Take
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.779..+0.805)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.844..+0.878)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The take point AtS is higher than money. The GV is obviously much higher than money. This also isn't a position where I see a lot of value coming from owning the cube as the 5 away player.

Stick

1
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