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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Break anchor to hit?

SubjectAuthor
* Break anchor to hit?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Break anchor to hit?atila...@gmail.com
`* Rollout: Break anchor to hit?Timothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: Break anchor to hit?Stick Rice
  `- Re: Rollout: Break anchor to hit?Timothy Chow

1
Break anchor to hit?

<t6vs6q$i5l$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Break anchor to hit?
Date: Sun, 29 May 2022 09:24:40 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 29 May 2022 13:24 UTC

XGID=-a-aB-E-B---cD---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Re: Break anchor to hit?

<ed056a16-33a3-46d9-a538-72a2493c547en@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Break anchor to hit?
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Mon, 30 May 2022 16:07 UTC

29 Mayıs 2022 Pazar tarihinde saat 16:24:44 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=-a-aB-E-B---cD---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X O |
> | X O | | O O X O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 148 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 41
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
X is ahead in the race and hitting while running is a good reason to break an anchor. Of course, the reasonable move after 21/17* is 17/16.
But his homeboard is weaker and will leave 21 shots. 21 shots is a lot and many can be dangerous. So I would play 13/8

Rollout: Break anchor to hit?

<t74stv$5pi$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Break anchor to hit?
Date: Tue, 31 May 2022 07:07:42 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 31 May 2022 11:07 UTC

XGID=-a-aB-E-B---cD---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

Even after studying this position for a while, I find the tradeoff
difficult to judge. Hitting still looks to me like the clear DMP
play, and in fact XG 3-ply hits at DMP, but according to XG the plays
are close at DMP. If you can see this then certainly you won't risk
all those gammon losses by breaking anchor for money.

But see the variant below, where hitting is the clear DMP play
according to XG.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.006
Player: 48.98% (G:11.58% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 51.02% (G:9.77% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.018..+0.006) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/17* 17/16 eq:-0.102 (-0.095)
Player: 48.61% (G:14.00% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 51.39% (G:19.18% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.116..-0.087) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-aB-E-C---cC---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.001
Player: 49.35% (G:12.14% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 50.65% (G:10.32% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.005..+0.007) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/17* 17/16 eq:-0.018 (-0.019)
Player: 50.28% (G:15.25% B:1.01%)
Opponent: 49.72% (G:17.62% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.026..-0.009) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Break anchor to hit?

<90b96016-ebb7-4506-badc-2692faa6a0ben@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Break anchor to hit?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 1 Jun 2022 00:47 UTC

On Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 7:07:45 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a-aB-E-B---cD---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X O |
> | X O | | O O X O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 148 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 41
> Even after studying this position for a while, I find the tradeoff
> difficult to judge. Hitting still looks to me like the clear DMP
> play, and in fact XG 3-ply hits at DMP, but according to XG the plays
> are close at DMP. If you can see this then certainly you won't risk
> all those gammon losses by breaking anchor for money.
>
> But see the variant below, where hitting is the clear DMP play
> according to XG.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.006
> Player: 48.98% (G:11.58% B:0.30%)
> Opponent: 51.02% (G:9.77% B:0.33%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.018..+0.006) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 21/17* 17/16 eq:-0.102 (-0.095)
> Player: 48.61% (G:14.00% B:0.81%)
> Opponent: 51.39% (G:19.18% B:0.66%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.116..-0.087) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-a-aB-E-C---cC---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X O |
> | X O | | O O X O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 143 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 41
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.001
> Player: 49.35% (G:12.14% B:0.32%)
> Opponent: 50.65% (G:10.32% B:0.41%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.005..+0.007) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 21/17* 17/16 eq:-0.018 (-0.019)
> Player: 50.28% (G:15.25% B:1.01%)
> Opponent: 49.72% (G:17.62% B:0.63%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.026..-0.009) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

In the original position it's correct to play safe at dmp by over 1% (.025) and you call an amount less than that 'clear' in your variant?

Also, in the variant hitting is only correct by about half a percent (.010) at dmp.

You can't use money rollouts to support dmp figures.

Stick

Re: Rollout: Break anchor to hit?

<t77odi$j1$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Break anchor to hit?
Date: Wed, 1 Jun 2022 09:09:04 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 1 Jun 2022 13:09 UTC

On 5/31/2022 8:47 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> In the original position it's correct to play safe at dmp by over 1% (.025) and you call an amount less than that 'clear' in your variant?
>
> Also, in the variant hitting is only correct by about half a percent (.010) at dmp.
>
> You can't use money rollouts to support dmp figures.

Obviously, I did not assume that pseudocubeless win numbers
were the same as DMP wins. But in this case I did trust XGR++
without doing a full rollout. Interesting that there is a
noticeable difference between XGR++ and a full rollout in
these two positions.

---
Tim Chow

1
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