XGID=aaBa--C-C---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 177 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

XGID=aaBa--C-C---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 177 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

The blitzing play is to hit. With a roll of 54, for example, X would
certainly play 13/9 8/3*. But in the given position, 13/7 6/3* has
some downsides. One cannot cover from the 6pt if it is stripped.
More importantly, the alternative play of 16/10 13/10 has several
plusses: it makes a useful point, unstacks the midpoint, cleans up
a blot, and retains multiple game-plan options. There's a reasonably
good chance that O will anchor and put an end to the blitz, so some
degree of what Robertie might call non-commitment has value.

Note that at gammon go, XG thinks that 16/10 13/10 and 13/9 8/3* are
basically tied.

I haven't bothered to roll out the variant, but it illustrates what
happens if the alternative to hitting is less attractive.

1. Rollout¹ 16/10 13/10 eq:+0.600
Player: 63.38% (G:20.21% B:1.08%)
Opponent: 36.62% (G:8.06% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.582..+0.617) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3* eq:+0.470 (-0.130)
Player: 59.26% (G:23.74% B:1.68%)
Opponent: 40.74% (G:10.47% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.451..+0.488) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/21 16/10 eq:+0.457 (-0.142)
Player: 59.85% (G:19.69% B:1.19%)
Opponent: 40.15% (G:9.56% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.441..+0.474) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 16/10 6/3* eq:+0.446 (-0.154)
Player: 58.91% (G:22.15% B:1.47%)
Opponent: 41.09% (G:10.08% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.429..+0.462) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Gammon go
---------

XGID=aaBa--C-C---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:63:0:1:1:2:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 177 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3* eq:+0.643
Player: 60.86% (G:21.28% B:3.82%)
Opponent: 39.14% (G:10.57% B:1.47%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.635..+0.651) - [86.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 16/10 13/10 eq:+0.636 (-0.006)
Player: 65.56% (G:16.27% B:2.31%)
Opponent: 34.44% (G:7.11% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.629..+0.644) - [13.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aaBa--C-C---dE-A-c-e----A-:0:0:1:36:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 177 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 36

1. XG Roller++ 24/15 eq:+0.522
Player: 62.90% (G:16.19% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 37.10% (G:7.93% B:0.27%)

2. XG Roller++ 15/9 6/3* eq:+0.508 (-0.015)
Player: 59.96% (G:22.52% B:1.50%)
Opponent: 40.04% (G:9.34% B:0.37%)

3. XG Roller++ 13/7 6/3* eq:+0.495 (-0.028)
Player: 59.52% (G:23.31% B:1.60%)
Opponent: 40.48% (G:9.90% B:0.46%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow