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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit?Timothy Chow
+* Re: Hit?atila...@gmail.com
|`- Re: Hit?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit?Timothy Chow

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Hit?

<t7ab55$kue$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit?
Date: Thu, 2 Jun 2022 08:41:08 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 2 Jun 2022 12:41 UTC

XGID=--a-BBCBB---cB----beB-bb--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit?

<50982684-aed3-4cf7-9438-db56d1c1d5e8n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Hit?
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Fri, 3 Jun 2022 08:34 UTC

2 Haziran 2022 Perşembe tarihinde saat 15:41:11 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=--a-BBCBB---cB----beB-bb--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X O O | +---+
> | X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
> | | | O | +---+
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X X | | X X X |
> | O X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 132 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 41
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
X has a solid phantom six-prime. And these kinds of positions that need 6-1 are mostly D/P in my experience. Hitting is definitely not even an alternative.

Re: Hit?

<t7cvs7$gr4$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit?
Date: Fri, 3 Jun 2022 08:47:00 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 3 Jun 2022 12:47 UTC

On 6/3/2022 4:34 AM, atila...@gmail.com wrote:
> X has a solid phantom six-prime. And these kinds of positions that need 6-1 are mostly D/P in my experience. Hitting is definitely not even an alternative.

What's your play?

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit?

<t7ftim$473$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit?
Date: Sat, 4 Jun 2022 11:26:12 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 4 Jun 2022 15:26 UTC

XGID=--a-BBCBB---cB----beB-bb--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

The subject line was sort of a trick question. Of course you don't hit
here. I posed the question that way so that the reader might not think
too hard about the choice between 13/9 6/5 and 13/8. The purpose of
13/9 6/5 is clear enough...if X can make a six-prime then he almost
clinches the game. The question is whether it's too risky to give O a
chance to turn the game around by hitting both blots. According to XG,
the risk is worth it. Even if O hits immediately with an ace, she still
has to escape her straggler with an ace followed by a 6 (unless she can
get X to break his five-prime with an awkward roll, which is not too
likely). See also the variant, where XG still favors leaving two blots
even when O has a double shot at the midpoint blot.

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:+0.593
Player: 78.02% (G:15.73% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 21.98% (G:4.97% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.586..+0.600) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.528 (-0.065)
Player: 75.30% (G:15.46% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 24.70% (G:4.99% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.522..+0.534) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--a-BBCBB--abB----beB-bb--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:+0.513
Player: 74.88% (G:15.80% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 25.12% (G:6.09% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.503..+0.524) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.496 (-0.018)
Player: 73.65% (G:16.67% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 26.35% (G:5.70% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.489..+0.503) - [0.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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