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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit? 2

SubjectAuthor
* Hit? 2Timothy Chow
+- Re: Hit? 2atila...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: Hit? 2Timothy Chow

1
Hit? 2

<t7d2d5$5rt$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit? 2
Date: Fri, 3 Jun 2022 09:30:09 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 3 Jun 2022 13:30 UTC

XGID=-aaB--DBB--AcB---bbd---bB-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit? 2

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Subject: Re: Hit? 2
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Sat, 4 Jun 2022 11:07 UTC

3 Haziran 2022 Cuma tarihinde saat 16:30:14 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=-aaB--DBB--AcB---bbd---bB-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X X | | X X |
> | O X X X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 145 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 11
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
It is necessary to keep all three game plans alive against an opponent who is committed to an attacking game plan by making one or more of his deep points. I believe that's the main idea. And 1-1 gives that opportunity.
The next question is easier: Which one is better? making the 4 points or making the 5 point? My play is 6/5(2), 11/9

Rollout: Hit? 2

<t7i6l1$5ot$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit? 2
Date: Sun, 5 Jun 2022 08:13:19 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 12:13 UTC

XGID=-aaB--DBB--AcB---bbd---bB-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

It's a little hard to blitz when X's back checkers are somewhat
hemmed in and the rest of X's structure is more suited to priming
than to blitzing. See the two variants below for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/5(2) eq:+0.562
Player: 63.08% (G:22.66% B:1.14%)
Opponent: 36.92% (G:12.01% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.547..+0.576) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/5(2) 3/2*(2) eq:+0.441 (-0.121)
Player: 59.62% (G:23.32% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 40.38% (G:12.90% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.427..+0.456) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) eq:+0.440 (-0.122)
Player: 60.51% (G:22.26% B:1.12%)
Opponent: 39.49% (G:13.16% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.422..+0.457) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-aaB--DBB--AcB---bbdA--bA-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 6/5(2) 3/2*(2) eq:+0.263
Player: 63.61% (G:23.39% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 36.39% (G:10.44% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.250..+0.275) - [93.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/5(2) eq:+0.251 (-0.012)
Player: 64.24% (G:22.53% B:1.44%)
Opponent: 35.76% (G:13.15% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.242..+0.260) - [6.7%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-a-aB-DBB--AcB---bbd---bB-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 6/5(2) 4/3*(2) eq:+0.676
Player: 65.13% (G:24.32% B:1.12%)
Opponent: 34.87% (G:10.51% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.662..+0.689) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/5(2) eq:+0.609 (-0.067)
Player: 65.42% (G:21.46% B:1.17%)
Opponent: 34.58% (G:10.82% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.596..+0.622) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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