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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit or make the 5pt?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit or make the 5pt?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Hit or make the 5pt?atila...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt?Timothy Chow

1
Hit or make the 5pt?

<t7i6ms$5ot$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or make the 5pt?
Date: Sun, 5 Jun 2022 08:14:20 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 12:14 UTC

XGID=-B-Aa-D-CbaC---B---bbabbb-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| X O X | | X X | | 2 |
| X O O X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit or make the 5pt?

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Subject: Re: Hit or make the 5pt?
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Tue, 7 Jun 2022 17:38 UTC

5 Haziran 2022 Pazar tarihinde saat 15:14:22 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=-B-Aa-D-CbaC---B---bbabbb-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X | +---+
> | X O X | | X X | | 2 |
> | X O O X | | X O X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 116 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 31
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
There are two options for X: race or attack and not ahead in the race.
Also 3-1 is not a good roll to race. Moreover, after making the 5 point, he will be in an awkward shape in the outfield.
11/10, 6/3* puts O on the bar against a three-point board. If O fails to enter with 9/36 probability, the distribution of X's builders is not bad and he can successfully continue the attack. The probability of being hit is 11/36, but the blot on the 21 point somehow tolerates that risk. Also, most of the remaining 16/36 work for X.

Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt?
Date: Wed, 8 Jun 2022 08:30:20 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 8 Jun 2022 12:30 UTC

XGID=-B-Aa-D-CbaC---B---bbabbb-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| X O X | | X X | | 2 |
| X O O X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 31

Hitting 11/10* 6/3 gives O 13 shots from the bar. Is it worth the
risk? X is not that far behind in the pip count and could get another
chance to hit later. On the other hand, O has a blot in her board,
and 8/5 6/5 does not clean up X's blot in his own board. I decided
that O's five-point board was too strong to risk 13 shots, but XG
strongly disagrees. In Variant 1, I have strengthened O's board,
and in the Variant 2, I have changed the state of X's board. I think
Variant 2 is interesting; if X hits, then O has only 12 return shots,
but they don't require breaking O's outfield point.

1. Rollout¹ 11/10* 6/3 eq:+0.368
Player: 56.05% (G:19.73% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 43.95% (G:18.14% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.359..+0.376) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.143 (-0.225)
Player: 48.84% (G:6.95% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 51.16% (G:7.18% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.135..+0.150) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-B-Aa-D-CbaC---B---cbbb-b-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| X O X | | X X | | 2 |
| X O O X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.200
Player: 51.05% (G:4.56% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 48.95% (G:4.95% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.196..+0.203) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/10* 6/3 eq:+0.179 (-0.020)
Player: 50.58% (G:13.44% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 49.42% (G:19.11% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.175..+0.184) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=---Ca-D-CbaC---B---bbabbb-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X | +---+
| X O X | | X X | | 2 |
| X O O X | | X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.132
Player: 48.21% (G:6.64% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 51.79% (G:7.14% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.125..+0.140) - [58.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/10* 10/7 eq:+0.131 (-0.001)
Player: 49.95% (G:12.32% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 50.05% (G:17.99% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.124..+0.139) - [41.9%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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