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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit or cover?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit or cover?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Hit or cover?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Hit or cover?atila...@gmail.com

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Hit or cover?

<t7kqum$41r$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or cover?
Date: Mon, 6 Jun 2022 08:12:04 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 6 Jun 2022 12:12 UTC

XGID=--aAB-D-B---dD--bb-dA-bA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit or cover?

<t7vd74$9fg$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or cover?
Date: Fri, 10 Jun 2022 08:25:04 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 10 Jun 2022 12:25 UTC

XGID=--aAB-D-B---dD--bb-dA-bA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

Attack a single checker? X has only 9 checkers in the zone and
getting hit back will likely bring an abrupt end to the blitz.
13/3 keeps all options open. In the variant, there are 10 checkers
in the zone and XG thinks that 13/3 and 8/2* 6/2 are tied.

1. Rollout¹ 13/3 eq:-0.034
Player: 48.42% (G:16.40% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 51.58% (G:14.75% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.045..-0.022) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:-0.126 (-0.092)
Player: 46.07% (G:15.98% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 53.93% (G:15.68% B:1.12%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.140..-0.111) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aAB-D-C---dC--bb-dA-bA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 13/3 eq:+0.027
Player: 49.87% (G:17.46% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 50.13% (G:14.00% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.021..+0.033) - [75.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.024 (-0.003)
Player: 49.51% (G:18.32% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 50.49% (G:12.77% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.017..+0.031) - [24.4%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Hit or cover?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Hit or cover?
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Sat, 11 Jun 2022 13:13 UTC

10 Haziran 2022 Cuma tarihinde saat 15:25:10 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=--aAB-D-B---dD--bb-dA-bA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X O X |
> | X O O | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 146 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> Attack a single checker? X has only 9 checkers in the zone and
> getting hit back will likely bring an abrupt end to the blitz.
> 13/3 keeps all options open. In the variant, there are 10 checkers
> in the zone and XG thinks that 13/3 and 8/2* 6/2 are tied.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/3 eq:-0.034
> Player: 48.42% (G:16.40% B:0.61%)
> Opponent: 51.58% (G:14.75% B:0.60%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.045..-0.022) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:-0.126 (-0.092)
> Player: 46.07% (G:15.98% B:0.36%)
> Opponent: 53.93% (G:15.68% B:1.12%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.140..-0.111) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=--aAB-D-C---dC--bb-dA-bA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X O X |
> | X O O | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 141 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/3 eq:+0.027
> Player: 49.87% (G:17.46% B:0.58%)
> Opponent: 50.13% (G:14.00% B:0.54%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.021..+0.033) - [75.6%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.024 (-0.003)
> Player: 49.51% (G:18.32% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 50.49% (G:12.77% B:0.74%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.017..+0.031) - [24.4%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
Similarly, the opponent's having only one blot hinders offensive play. If he had another blot anywhere on the board, attacking would usually be the right game.

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