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Late blitz cube

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Late blitz cube
Date: Wed, 8 Jun 2022 08:32:23 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 8 Jun 2022 12:32 UTC

XGID=a-BAACC--A---B-ca-Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Late blitz cube

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Subject: Re: Late blitz cube
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Wed, 8 Jun 2022 22:18 UTC

On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 1:32:26 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=a-BAACC--A---B-ca-Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O X | | O O O O O |
> | X O X | | O O O O O |
> | O | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X | +---+
> | | | X X X | | 2 |
> | X | | X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 115 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
With the opponent's other blot under attack, any dance will massively lose our market.
It's a monster double, and the only question is whether it's D/P or D/T. It isn't close to being TG.
I think it's D/T because we may fail to cover both blots and then be hit ourselves. And that's not the only way
we can lose.

Paul

Rollout: Late blitz cube

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Late blitz cube
Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2022 08:45:49 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 11 Jun 2022 12:45 UTC

XGID=a-BAACC--A---B-ca-Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

I passed this cube and was surprised that XG said I should have
taken it. Duplication of 2's has something to do with it; see
the variant below, where I have moved O's outfield blot and XG
thinks it's a massive pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 69.45% (G:25.59% B:0.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.55% (G:13.35% B:0.42%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.36% (G:24.99% B:0.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.64% (G:13.56% B:0.48%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.682 (-0.233)
Redouble/Take: +0.915
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.085)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.676..+0.688)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.903..+0.926)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a-BAACC--A---Bac--Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 100 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 72.75% (G:30.05% B:0.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.25% (G:11.48% B:0.48%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.07% (G:29.20% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.93% (G:11.44% B:0.53%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.804 (-0.196)
Redouble/Take: +1.203 (+0.203)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.801..+0.807)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+1.198..+1.209)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Late blitz cube

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Late blitz cube
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 11 Jun 2022 18:44 UTC

On Saturday, June 11, 2022 at 1:45:54 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=a-BAACC--A---B-ca-Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O X | | O O O O O |
> | X O X | | O O O O O |
> | O | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X | +---+
> | | | X X X | | 2 |
> | X | | X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 115 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
> I passed this cube and was surprised that XG said I should have
> taken it. Duplication of 2's has something to do with it; see
> the variant below, where I have moved O's outfield blot and XG
> thinks it's a massive pass.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No redouble
> Player Winning Chances: 69.45% (G:25.59% B:0.48%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.55% (G:13.35% B:0.42%)
> Redouble/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 70.36% (G:24.99% B:0.48%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 29.64% (G:13.56% B:0.48%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No redouble: +0.682 (-0.233)
> Redouble/Take: +0.915
> Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.085)
>
> Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.676..+0.688)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.903..+0.926)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=a-BAACC--A---Bac--Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O X | | O O O O O |
> | X O X | | O O O O O |
> | O | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X | +---+
> | | | X X X | | 2 |
> | X | | X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 115 O: 100 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No redouble
> Player Winning Chances: 72.75% (G:30.05% B:0.50%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 27.25% (G:11.48% B:0.48%)
> Redouble/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 74.07% (G:29.20% B:0.47%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 25.93% (G:11.44% B:0.53%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No redouble: +0.804 (-0.196)
> Redouble/Take: +1.203 (+0.203)
> Redouble/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
>
> Rollout:
> 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.801..+0.807)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+1.198..+1.209)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

I called this one pretty accurately, I think, recognising that the
real question was whether it's D/P or D/T, and also getting it right.

I missed the point about duplication.
The variant is better for the on-roll player than the original for other reasons,
though. It is harder for the opponent to safety the other blot in the variant.
And if the opponent dances, there are more fours than there are twos.

Paul

Re: Rollout: Late blitz cube

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Late blitz cube
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 11 Jun 2022 21:01 UTC

On Saturday, June 11, 2022 at 7:44:43 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Saturday, June 11, 2022 at 1:45:54 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> > XGID=a-BAACC--A---B-ca-Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O X | | O O O O O |
> > | X O X | | O O O O O |
> > | O | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X X | +---+
> > | | | X X X | | 2 |
> > | X | | X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 115 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> > I passed this cube and was surprised that XG said I should have
> > taken it. Duplication of 2's has something to do with it; see
> > the variant below, where I have moved O's outfield blot and XG
> > thinks it's a massive pass.
> >
> > Analyzed in Rollout
> > No redouble
> > Player Winning Chances: 69.45% (G:25.59% B:0.48%)
> > Opponent Winning Chances: 30.55% (G:13.35% B:0.42%)
> > Redouble/Take
> > Player Winning Chances: 70.36% (G:24.99% B:0.48%)
> > Opponent Winning Chances: 29.64% (G:13.56% B:0.48%)
> >
> > Cubeful Equities:
> > No redouble: +0.682 (-0.233)
> > Redouble/Take: +0.915
> > Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.085)
> >
> > Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
> >
> > Rollout:
> > 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Dice Seed: 271828
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> > Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.676..+0.688)
> > Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.903..+0.926)
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
> >
> > -------
> > Variant
> > -------
> >
> > XGID=a-BAACC--A---Bac--Bbb-bbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> > X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O X | | O O O O O |
> > | X O X | | O O O O O |
> > | O | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X X | +---+
> > | | | X X X | | 2 |
> > | X | | X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 115 O: 100 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> > Analyzed in Rollout
> > No redouble
> > Player Winning Chances: 72.75% (G:30.05% B:0.50%)
> > Opponent Winning Chances: 27.25% (G:11.48% B:0.48%)
> > Redouble/Take
> > Player Winning Chances: 74.07% (G:29.20% B:0.47%)
> > Opponent Winning Chances: 25.93% (G:11.44% B:0.53%)
> >
> > Cubeful Equities:
> > No redouble: +0.804 (-0.196)
> > Redouble/Take: +1.203 (+0.203)
> > Redouble/Pass: +1.000
> >
> > Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
> >
> > Rollout:
> > 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Dice Seed: 271828
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> > Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.801..+0.807)
> > Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+1.198..+1.209)
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
> I called this one pretty accurately, I think, recognising that the
> real question was whether it's D/P or D/T, and also getting it right.
>
> I missed the point about duplication.
> The variant is better for the on-roll player than the original for other reasons,
> though. It is harder for the opponent to safety the other blot in the variant.
> And if the opponent dances, there are more fours than there are twos.
>
> Paul

I forgot another important reason that the variant is stronger for the on-roll player.
In the original position, the opponent can create a 9 and 10 point mini prime on rolling an ace --
quite a strong formation.

So I'm not sure that duplication is such a key reason why the variant is better for the on-roll player
than the original hamburger.

Paul

Have no friends not equal to yourself. -- Confucius

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Late blitz cube

Subject	Author
Late blitz cube	Timothy Chow
Re: Late blitz cube	peps...@gmail.com
Rollout: Late blitz cube	Timothy Chow
Re: Rollout: Late blitz cube	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Rollout: Late blitz cube	peps...@gmail.com