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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 22 to play

SubjectAuthor
* 22 to playTimothy Chow
+- Re: 22 to playatila...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: 22 to playTimothy Chow

1
22 to play

<t7vd9u$9fg$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 22 to play
Date: Fri, 10 Jun 2022 08:26:37 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 10 Jun 2022 12:26 UTC

XGID=-cABCBB-A----B--bc-d-Ba-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

Re: 22 to play

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Subject: Re: 22 to play
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Sat, 11 Jun 2022 12:07 UTC

10 Haziran 2022 Cuma tarihinde saat 15:26:40 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=-cABCBB-A----B--bc-d-Ba-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X O O | +---+
> | X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
> | O | | O | +---+
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X O |
> | | | X X X X O |
> | X | | X X X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 118 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 22
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
There is nothing to discuss about making the 2 point with one of the twos. With the remaining 3 twos, 13/7 doesn't seem bad and the O's weak board supports this move, but the 6-1,6-3,6-5 and 66 jokers are dangerous. With 13/11, 13/9, it's not a bad idea to spread out in the outfield and not to leave a direct shot. This way X will have plenty of opportunity to hit back even if get hit.

Rollout: 22 to play

<t84k1k$6dq$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 22 to play
Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2022 07:52:20 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 12 Jun 2022 11:52 UTC

XGID=-cABCBB-A----B--bc-d-Ba-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

XG favors 13/7 4/2. Certainly if X successfully makes his bar point,
it will turn the thumbscrews on O, who will then almost certainly
crunch while X saunters around the board. Of course, things could go
wrong if O rolls a couple of quick sixes, but even without the blot in
O's board (see variant), XG slightly prefers 13/7.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 4/2 eq:+0.933
Player: 83.43% (G:33.33% B:2.72%)
Opponent: 16.57% (G:3.42% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.926..+0.940) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 4/2 eq:+0.885 (-0.047)
Player: 82.13% (G:31.00% B:2.85%)
Opponent: 17.87% (G:3.02% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.877..+0.894) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 8/6 4/2 eq:+0.853 (-0.080)
Player: 81.57% (G:29.28% B:2.58%)
Opponent: 18.43% (G:2.67% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.847..+0.859) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/6 4/2 eq:+0.850 (-0.083)
Player: 81.30% (G:29.99% B:2.77%)
Opponent: 18.70% (G:3.02% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.843..+0.857) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/2 eq:+0.848 (-0.085)
Player: 81.10% (G:30.02% B:2.97%)
Opponent: 18.90% (G:2.98% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.841..+0.855) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-cABCBB-A----B--bc-e-B--b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 4/2 eq:+0.882
Player: 82.53% (G:30.87% B:2.24%)
Opponent: 17.47% (G:3.11% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.875..+0.889) - [98.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 4/2 eq:+0.871 (-0.012)
Player: 82.31% (G:29.57% B:2.50%)
Opponent: 17.69% (G:2.92% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.864..+0.878) - [1.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 8/6 4/2 eq:+0.870 (-0.013)
Player: 82.27% (G:28.82% B:2.62%)
Opponent: 17.73% (G:2.34% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.863..+0.876) - [0.4%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/6 4/2 eq:+0.841 (-0.041)
Player: 81.11% (G:29.34% B:2.69%)
Opponent: 18.89% (G:2.87% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.835..+0.848) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/2 eq:+0.841 (-0.042)
Player: 80.83% (G:29.85% B:2.82%)
Opponent: 19.17% (G:2.95% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.834..+0.847) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 8/2 4/2 eq:+0.827 (-0.055)
Player: 80.58% (G:29.28% B:2.60%)
Opponent: 19.42% (G:2.93% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.820..+0.834) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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