novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - Make the genius play?

Make the genius play?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Make the genius play?
Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2022 22:48:21 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 14 Jun 2022 02:48 UTC

XGID=-BBBBAB---b--B---dcd-Bb---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| O O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 113 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Make the genius play?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
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Subject: Rollout: Make the genius play?
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 16 Jun 2022 02:10 UTC

XGID=-BBBBAB---b--B---dcd-Bb---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

By the "genius play" I mean 21/16 21/15, volunteering a double direct
shot. That is indeed XG's play and it doesn't think it's close. X is
ahead in the pip count and has a huge board advantage. If O hits then
X will usually have quite a few rolls that hit back and lock up the
game immediately. The pedestrian 13/8 13/7 strands X's back checkers,
which will probably have a hard time escaping safely anyway, and by that
time, X's board may have deteriorated.

1. Rollout¹ 21/16 21/15 eq:+0.103
Player: 53.00% (G:11.23% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 47.00% (G:6.60% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.092..+0.114) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7 eq:-0.144 (-0.247)
Player: 48.18% (G:5.60% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 51.82% (G:5.95% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.154..-0.135) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Preserve wildlife -- pickle a squirrel today!

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Make the genius play?

Subject	Author
Make the genius play?	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Make the genius play?	Timothy Chow