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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Break anchor or dump?

SubjectAuthor
* Break anchor or dump?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Break anchor or dump?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Break anchor or dump?atila...@gmail.com

1
Break anchor or dump?

<t84k2v$6dq$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Break anchor or dump?
Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2022 07:53:03 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 12 Jun 2022 11:53 UTC

XGID=--BbCBB-D---b------cBcbba-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 111 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Break anchor or dump?

<t89vgq$lf4$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Break anchor or dump?
Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2022 08:38:49 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 14 Jun 2022 12:38 UTC

XGID=--BbCBB-D---b------cBcbba-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 111 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

Kit Woolsey has a nice article on breaking anchor.

https://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Sep02/anchor.htm

Here, timing considerations might seem to suggest breaking anchor.
X is ahead in the pip count and if he doesn't break anchor now, he
has to dump a checker to the 2pt, and he might be forced to break
anchor under more unfavorable conditions next turn. Also, O's board,
while pretty strong, has a blot in it.

However, the rollout below says that 20/11 is a whopper. The thing
is that O's timing is also precarious. If X sits tight, O may very
well be forced to compromise her position immediately. If we give
O some more timing (see variant) then the decision becomes much
closer.

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/2 eq:+0.427
Player: 61.13% (G:13.83% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 38.87% (G:7.32% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.414..+0.440) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+0.302 (-0.125)
Player: 59.92% (G:14.27% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 40.08% (G:11.12% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.290..+0.315) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BbCBB-D---c------cBbbba-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/2 eq:+0.354
Player: 59.92% (G:13.34% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 40.08% (G:8.54% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.349..+0.359) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+0.330 (-0.024)
Player: 59.78% (G:14.54% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 40.22% (G:10.82% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.324..+0.335) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 4/1 eq:+0.296 (-0.057)
Player: 58.15% (G:14.22% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 41.85% (G:10.01% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.291..+0.302) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Break anchor or dump?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Break anchor or dump?
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Wed, 15 Jun 2022 18:52 UTC

14 Haziran 2022 Salı tarihinde saat 15:38:53 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=--BbCBB-D---b------cBcbba-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O X O O O O |
> | | | O X O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | X | | |
> | X | | X |
> | O X | | X X X O X |
> | O X | | X X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 110 O: 111 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 63
> Kit Woolsey has a nice article on breaking anchor.
>
> https://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Sep02/anchor.htm
>
> Here, timing considerations might seem to suggest breaking anchor.
> X is ahead in the pip count and if he doesn't break anchor now, he
> has to dump a checker to the 2pt, and he might be forced to break
> anchor under more unfavorable conditions next turn. Also, O's board,
> while pretty strong, has a blot in it.
>
> However, the rollout below says that 20/11 is a whopper. The thing
> is that O's timing is also precarious. If X sits tight, O may very
> well be forced to compromise her position immediately. If we give
> O some more timing (see variant) then the decision becomes much
> closer.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/2 eq:+0.427
> Player: 61.13% (G:13.83% B:0.33%)
> Opponent: 38.87% (G:7.32% B:0.19%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.414..+0.440) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+0.302 (-0.125)
> Player: 59.92% (G:14.27% B:0.70%)
> Opponent: 40.08% (G:11.12% B:0.15%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.290..+0.315) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=--BbCBB-D---c------cBbbba-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O X O O O O |
> | | | O X O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | X | | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X X O X |
> | O X | | X X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 110 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 63
> 1. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/2 eq:+0.354
> Player: 59.92% (G:13.34% B:0.49%)
> Opponent: 40.08% (G:8.54% B:0.20%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.349..+0.359) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+0.330 (-0.024)
> Player: 59.78% (G:14.54% B:0.62%)
> Opponent: 40.22% (G:10.82% B:0.16%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.324..+0.335) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 8/2 4/1 eq:+0.296 (-0.057)
> Player: 58.15% (G:14.22% B:0.43%)
> Opponent: 41.85% (G:10.01% B:0.27%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.291..+0.302) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
Here we should not overlook the pretty aces awarded to O after 20/11. (Variant 2)
Also after 8/5, the spare checkers on the 4 and 5 work well together. If we move the spare checker on the point 4 to point 2, both moves are close. Therefore, the spare checker on the 4 point also have an effect on the decision. (variant 3)

Variant 2
XGID=--BbCBB-D---c------bBcbba-:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. XG Roller++ 20/11 eq:+0,585
Player: 65,29% (G:12,81% B:0,45%)
Opponent: 34,71% (G:6,10% B:0,10%)

2. XG Roller++ 8/5 8/2 eq:+0,445 (-0,140)
Player: 62,06% (G:14,37% B:0,44%)
Opponent: 37,94% (G:7,50% B:0,18%)

3. 2-ply 8/2 4/1 eq:+0,364 (-0,221)
Player: 59,59% (G:15,73% B:0,26%)
Opponent: 40,41% (G:7,67% B:0,17%)

4. 2-ply 20/14 8/5 eq:+0,337 (-0,248)
Player: 58,70% (G:15,37% B:0,56%)
Opponent: 41,30% (G:10,42% B:0,24%)

5. 2-ply 20/17 8/2 eq:+0,261 (-0,324)
Player: 56,37% (G:17,14% B:0,61%)
Opponent: 43,63% (G:11,51% B:0,28%)

Variant 3
XGID=--CbBBB-D---b------cBcbba-:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O X O O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 108 O: 111 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+0,259
Player: 58,63% (G:14,01% B:0,66%)
Opponent: 41,37% (G:11,05% B:0,17%)
Confidence: ±0,012 (+0,247..+0,271) - [99,4%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/2 eq:+0,240 (-0,020)
Player: 56,19% (G:13,09% B:0,31%)
Opponent: 43,81% (G:8,81% B:0,26%)
Confidence: ±0,010 (+0,230..+0,249) - [0,6%]
Duration: 4 minutes 28 seconds

3. 2-ply 20/14 8/5 eq:+0,054 (-0,205)
Player: 50,82% (G:16,72% B:0,85%)
Opponent: 49,18% (G:16,09% B:0,35%)

4. 2-ply 20/17 20/14 eq:+0,019 (-0,240)
Player: 50,61% (G:13,90% B:0,69%)
Opponent: 49,39% (G:15,98% B:0,34%)

5. 1-ply 20/17 8/2 eq:-0,073 (-0,333)
Player: 48,71% (G:11,30% B:0,37%)
Opponent: 51,29% (G:15,08% B:0,34%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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