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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Attack or prime?

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* Attack or prime?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Attack or prime?Timothy Chow

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Attack or prime?

<t8e3gl$vle$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Attack or prime?
Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2022 22:11:32 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 16 Jun 2022 02:11 UTC

XGID=-a-aBBBAB---bC--acbcb-A-B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Attack or prime?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Attack or prime?
Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2022 15:28:04 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 18 Jun 2022 19:28 UTC

XGID=-a-aBBBAB---bC--acbcb-A-B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

Here I reasoned that since I was behind in the pip count, priming
made more sense than attacking. If I hit, then even if I'm not
hit back right away, it's hard to sustain an attack when I have
three checkers behind O's prime.

However, XG strongly favors the (double) hit. It is not so much
that X expects to carry out a successful blitz, as X is hitting
for tempo. There's a blot on O's 9pt that X would like to hit.
If X gives O free rein to use her whole roll, she has many rolls
that significantly improve her position by improving her prime
or escaping with a 6.

I have rolled out two variants in which XG thinks the decision is
much closer.

1. Rollout¹ 7/3* 3/1* eq:-0.023
Player: 48.50% (G:19.92% B:1.01%)
Opponent: 51.50% (G:17.45% B:1.32%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.031..-0.014) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/22 7/3* eq:-0.093 (-0.070)
Player: 47.27% (G:17.35% B:1.07%)
Opponent: 52.73% (G:17.53% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.102..-0.083) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-0.162 (-0.139)
Player: 46.59% (G:14.14% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 53.41% (G:18.88% B:1.48%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.171..-0.152) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-a-aBBBAB---bC-a-cbcb-A-B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 7/3* eq:-0.102
Player: 47.00% (G:16.71% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 53.00% (G:17.33% B:1.02%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.111..-0.093) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/3* 3/1* eq:-0.121 (-0.020)
Player: 46.49% (G:18.57% B:0.86%)
Opponent: 53.51% (G:18.65% B:1.46%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.131..-0.112) - [0.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-0.123 (-0.021)
Player: 47.63% (G:14.57% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 52.37% (G:18.55% B:1.50%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.132..-0.114) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-a-aBBBAB---bC--acbcb-B-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 7/3* 3/1* eq:+0.090
Player: 50.71% (G:21.11% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 49.29% (G:15.53% B:0.88%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.081..+0.099) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.066 (-0.024)
Player: 51.26% (G:15.73% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 48.74% (G:13.97% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.057..+0.074) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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