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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit or run?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit or run?Timothy Chow
+* Re: Hit or run?peps...@gmail.com
|`- Re: Hit or run?peps...@gmail.com
`* Rollout: Hit or run?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Hit or run?Stick Rice

1
Hit or run?

<t8f9om$3bm$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or run?
Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2022 09:04:20 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 16 Jun 2022 13:04 UTC

Yes, "hit or run" and not "hit and run." Hit and run is a crime on
the highway, and in this position it would be a crime against
backgammon.

XGID=--aBBBB-B---bC--cc-dA-b-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit or run?

<849aeac5-db14-4590-9a0b-ffa5b45cf0cbn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Hit or run?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 18 Jun 2022 18:05 UTC

On Thursday, June 16, 2022 at 2:04:24 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> Yes, "hit or run" and not "hit and run." Hit and run is a crime on
> the highway, and in this position it would be a crime against
> backgammon.
.....

Sounds like a preamble in the style of Paul Epstein

Re: Hit or run?

<c8ad1efe-d752-4f4c-b9f8-c6b8df991692n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Hit or run?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 18 Jun 2022 18:40 UTC

On Saturday, June 18, 2022 at 7:05:54 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Thursday, June 16, 2022 at 2:04:24 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> > Yes, "hit or run" and not "hit and run." Hit and run is a crime on
> > the highway, and in this position it would be a crime against
> > backgammon.
> ....
>
> Sounds like a preamble in the style of Paul Epstein

Yes, but how about answering the question?
I like 8/2* which gives a great position in the 2/3 event that the opponent fails back.
I don't think any of the alternatives offer that much, so that's my play.

BTW, Tim sometimes posts in the style of Trickster Tim.
So it can pay to look for obscure plays that don't do either -- don't hit or run.
I kind of doubt that my play is correct --- too prosaic. But it's definitely my play.

Paul

Rollout: Hit or run?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or run?
Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2022 09:46:03 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 19 Jun 2022 13:46 UTC

XGID=--aBBBB-B---bC--cc-dA-b-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

I was surprised by how much difference XG thought there was between
this position and the variant below, in which O has her 4pt instead
of her 3pt. In the variant, I guess, almost all of O's rolls play
well, and a tempo hit is more urgent.

1. Rollout¹ 20/14 eq:+0.539
Player: 62.51% (G:20.23% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 37.49% (G:9.78% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.527..+0.551) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2* eq:+0.454 (-0.085)
Player: 60.24% (G:25.35% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 39.76% (G:11.97% B:0.96%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.441..+0.468) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/23 20/15 eq:+0.448 (-0.091)
Player: 60.88% (G:19.87% B:0.75%)
Opponent: 39.12% (G:11.36% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.434..+0.461) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aBBBB-B---bC--cc-dAb--A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 8/2* eq:+0.405
Player: 58.08% (G:24.45% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 41.92% (G:12.88% B:1.07%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.394..+0.415) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/14 eq:+0.357 (-0.048)
Player: 58.28% (G:18.99% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 41.72% (G:10.90% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.342..+0.371) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/23 20/15 eq:+0.337 (-0.067)
Player: 58.21% (G:19.04% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 41.79% (G:11.76% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.323..+0.352) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Hit or run?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Hit or run?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 20 Jun 2022 07:58 UTC

On Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 9:46:08 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=--aBBBB-B---bC--cc-dA-b-A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X O X |
> | X O O | | O O |
> | X O O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 135 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 51
> I was surprised by how much difference XG thought there was between
> this position and the variant below, in which O has her 4pt instead
> of her 3pt. In the variant, I guess, almost all of O's rolls play
> well, and a tempo hit is more urgent.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 20/14 eq:+0.539
> Player: 62.51% (G:20.23% B:0.60%)
> Opponent: 37.49% (G:9.78% B:0.46%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.527..+0.551) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/2* eq:+0.454 (-0.085)
> Player: 60.24% (G:25.35% B:0.50%)
> Opponent: 39.76% (G:11.97% B:0.96%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.441..+0.468) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 24/23 20/15 eq:+0.448 (-0.091)
> Player: 60.88% (G:19.87% B:0.75%)
> Opponent: 39.12% (G:11.36% B:0.45%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.434..+0.461) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=--aBBBB-B---bC--cc-dAb--A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X O X |
> | X O O | | O O |
> | X O O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 135 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 51
> 1. Rollout¹ 8/2* eq:+0.405
> Player: 58.08% (G:24.45% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 41.92% (G:12.88% B:1.07%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.394..+0.415) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 20/14 eq:+0.357 (-0.048)
> Player: 58.28% (G:18.99% B:0.57%)
> Opponent: 41.72% (G:10.90% B:0.47%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.342..+0.371) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 24/23 20/15 eq:+0.337 (-0.067)
> Player: 58.21% (G:19.04% B:0.61%)
> Opponent: 41.79% (G:11.76% B:0.52%)
> Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.323..+0.352) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

It's really about how poorly the opp's sixes play when his 3pt is made opposed to his 4pt. Also, I'd have cubed before the roll in the original position but not in the latter. Don't have the time to get into whether cube efficiency matters in the positions/plays or not.

Stick

1
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