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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Anchor or hit?

SubjectAuthor
* Anchor or hit?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Anchor or hit?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Anchor or hit?Timothy Chow

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Anchor or hit?

<t89vhl$lf4$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Anchor or hit?
Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2022 08:39:18 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 14 Jun 2022 12:39 UTC

XGID=-a-b--E-CB--cC---cac-b-A-A:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Anchor or hit?

<t8f956$ubh$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Anchor or hit?
Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2022 08:53:56 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 16 Jun 2022 12:53 UTC

XGID=-a-b--E-CB--cC---cac-b-A-A:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

I find it easy to get hypnotized by the rhythm of an early-game
blot-hitting contest, but one should always be alert to the
possibility of a consolidating move that is superior to continuing
the fight. Magriel would have had little trouble with this play
decades ago. All his safe/bold criteria point to safety, and this
roll gives X the option of making the golden point.

But see also the variant below, where XG says the decision is much
closer.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 23/20 eq:+0.274
Player: 57.17% (G:12.08% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 42.83% (G:8.59% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.261..+0.288) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 23/18* eq:+0.176 (-0.098)
Player: 54.09% (G:15.81% B:0.77%)
Opponent: 45.91% (G:13.27% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.157..+0.196) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-b-BC-CB--cC---cac-b-A-A:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 157 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 23/18* eq:+0.688
Player: 65.14% (G:22.83% B:1.26%)
Opponent: 34.86% (G:8.15% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (+0.668..+0.708) - [69.9%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 23/20 eq:+0.681 (-0.007)
Player: 67.27% (G:15.01% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 32.73% (G:6.22% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.667..+0.696) - [30.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Anchor or hit?

<t8gjen$rf7$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Anchor or hit?
Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2022 20:55:50 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 17 Jun 2022 00:55 UTC

In case anyone was suspicious of the short rollout I posted for the
variant, below is a longer (and stronger) rollout.

On 6/16/2022 8:53 AM, I wrote:
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-a-b-BC-CB--cC---cac-b-A-A:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O  O |   | O     O     X    |
>  | X           O    |   | O     O          |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  | X |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O        X  X    |   | X  X     O       |
>  | O        X  X    |   | X  X     O     O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 157  O: 164 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 53
>
>     1. Rollout¹    Bar/22 23/18*                eq:+0.688
>       Player:   65.14% (G:22.83% B:1.26%)
>       Opponent: 34.86% (G:8.15% B:0.33%)
>       Confidence: ±0.020 (+0.668..+0.708) - [69.9%]
>
>     2. Rollout¹    Bar/20 23/20                 eq:+0.681 (-0.007)
>       Player:   67.27% (G:15.01% B:0.65%)
>       Opponent: 32.73% (G:6.22% B:0.23%)
>       Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.667..+0.696) - [30.1%]
>
> ¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
>    Dice Seed: 271828
>    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

XGID=-a-b-BC-CB--cC---cac-b-A-A:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 157 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 23/18* eq:+0.693
Player: 64.91% (G:22.97% B:1.29%)
Opponent: 35.09% (G:8.23% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.683..+0.704) - [71.8%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 23/20 eq:+0.689 (-0.004)
Player: 67.37% (G:15.05% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 32.63% (G:6.17% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.680..+0.698) - [28.2%]

¹ 2540 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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