novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - Rollout: Wish I had five 4's to play

Wish I had five 4's to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Wish I had five 4's to play
Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2022 15:30:48 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 18 Jun 2022 19:30 UTC

XGID=-aa-B-D-BA--bDc--c-c-b-AA-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X O O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Wish I had five 4's to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Wish I had five 4's to play
Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2022 09:21:49 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 20 Jun 2022 13:21 UTC

XGID=-aa-B-D-BA--bDc--c-c-b-AA-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Obviously the 5pt is better than the 2pt, but in a blitz, making a low
point can be better if it avoids leaving a return shot and lets you
bring more builders into the zone. The trouble here is that after
6/2*(2) 13/9, there isn't a particularly productive fourth 4.

XG thinks the decision is closer in the variant, where there *is* a
productive fourth 4, although even in the variant, it prefers making
the 5pt and hitting loose on the 2pt. Note that making the 5pt is
less committal because it offers X priming possibilities as well as
blitzing possibilities.

1. Rollout¹ 13/5 9/5 6/2* eq:+0.382
Player: 56.87% (G:25.38% B:1.07%)
Opponent: 43.13% (G:12.46% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.365..+0.399) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/5(2) eq:+0.212 (-0.170)
Player: 53.61% (G:22.86% B:1.01%)
Opponent: 46.39% (G:13.75% B:0.83%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.197..+0.227) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/9 6/2*(2) eq:+0.205 (-0.177)
Player: 53.38% (G:20.95% B:1.05%)
Opponent: 46.62% (G:12.58% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.191..+0.219) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/5 9/5 eq:+0.194 (-0.188)
Player: 53.24% (G:21.91% B:1.14%)
Opponent: 46.76% (G:14.26% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.179..+0.208) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 6/2*(2) eq:+0.191 (-0.190)
Player: 53.35% (G:22.01% B:1.13%)
Opponent: 46.65% (G:13.95% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.178..+0.204) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aa-B-D-BA--bCcA-c-c-b-AA-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X O O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 158 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

1. Rollout¹ 13/5 9/5 6/2* eq:+0.254
Player: 54.55% (G:23.96% B:1.31%)
Opponent: 45.45% (G:15.37% B:1.26%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.235..+0.274) - [99.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/11 13/5 9/5 eq:+0.218 (-0.037)
Player: 53.68% (G:23.23% B:0.97%)
Opponent: 46.32% (G:13.70% B:0.87%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.202..+0.234) - [0.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 15/11 13/9 6/2*(2) eq:+0.209 (-0.046)
Player: 53.43% (G:23.20% B:0.99%)
Opponent: 46.57% (G:13.97% B:0.83%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.194..+0.223) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Kiss me twice. I'm schizophrenic.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Wish I had five 4's to play

Subject	Author
Wish I had five 4's to play	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Wish I had five 4's to play	Timothy Chow