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interests / rec.games.backgammon / The backgame isn't working out too well

SubjectAuthor
* The backgame isn't working out too wellTimothy Chow
+- Re: The backgame isn't working out too wellpeps...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: The backgame isn't working out too wellTimothy Chow

1
The backgame isn't working out too well

<t8psei$311$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: The backgame isn't working out too well
Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2022 09:24:32 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 20 Jun 2022 13:24 UTC

XGID=-BBBB-BA---------bbcBBbcc-:2:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X X O O O |
| O O | | O X X O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 4 |
| X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 63 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

Re: The backgame isn't working out too well

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Subject: Re: The backgame isn't working out too well
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 21 Jun 2022 15:00 UTC

On Monday, June 20, 2022 at 2:24:35 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BBBB-BA---------bbcBBbcc-:2:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O X X O O O |
> | O O | | O X X O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | | +---+
> | | | X X X X X | | 4 |
> | X | | X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 121 O: 63 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 4, X own cube
> X to play 51

The backgame seems to be working out better than the attempts to prove that there are no odd perfect numbers.
I don't think the 7 point checker has much value so we may as well burn it.
Breaking an anchor needlessly gives the opponent chances to point or pick and pass.
Note that we're unlikely to crunch so there's no reason not to break an anchor later.

A confident 7/1.

Paul

Rollout: The backgame isn't working out too well

<t93ajq$vec$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: The backgame isn't working out too well
Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2022 23:21:27 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 24 Jun 2022 03:21 UTC

XGID=-BBBB-BA---------bbcBBbcc-:2:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X X O O O |
| O O | | O X X O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 4 |
| X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 63 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 51

I was loath to kill a checker, but now is precisely the time when the
backgame could finally pay off, if X keeps both anchors. Just as an
example, suppose X knew ahead of time that O's next roll was going to
be 53. X will then get a shot regardless, but he'll be in much better
shape if he plays 7/1 than if he plays 20/15 7/6 and gets hit. Yes,
if O rolls well and clears a point safely, then X will wish he had run
off the 20pt, but X is a big underdog and needs to be thinking about
how to take best advantage of the good sequences.

1. Rollout¹ 7/1 eq:-0.632
Player: 22.07% (G:1.10% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 77.93% (G:17.37% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.637..-0.627) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/15 7/6 eq:-0.697 (-0.065)
Player: 21.37% (G:1.17% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 78.63% (G:21.64% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.702..-0.691) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/14 eq:-0.708 (-0.075)
Player: 21.32% (G:1.15% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 78.68% (G:22.35% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.713..-0.702) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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