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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Not the best blitzing roll

SubjectAuthor
* Not the best blitzing rollTimothy Chow
`* Rollout: Not the best blitzing rollTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Not the best blitzing rollpeps...@gmail.com

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Not the best blitzing roll

<t99oc6$3u5hn$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Not the best blitzing roll
Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2022 09:53:10 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 26 Jun 2022 13:53 UTC

XGID=a-BABBB-A-c-bC---Accc---A-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Not the best blitzing roll

<t9j8o0$1n13a$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Not the best blitzing roll
Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2022 00:27:42 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 30 Jun 2022 04:27 UTC

XGID=a-BABBB-A-c-bC---Accc---A-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

Lifting as many blots as possible is not usually the right mindset when
you're blitzing. However, O's position is strong enough that if she
hits, then the game could turn around in a hurry. X doesn't have to
commit to a blitz here; he also has racing and priming chances, and
playing safe this turn does not preclude him from playing something
more aggressive next turn if the dice allow it.

1. Rollout¹ 24/23 8/6 3/2 eq:+0.356
Player: 63.24% (G:31.93% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 36.76% (G:8.50% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.346..+0.367) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/6 eq:+0.305 (-0.052)
Player: 61.29% (G:33.74% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 38.71% (G:10.51% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.295..+0.315) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/21 3/2 eq:+0.283 (-0.073)
Player: 61.43% (G:30.39% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 38.57% (G:9.63% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.273..+0.293) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/7 3/2 eq:+0.275 (-0.081)
Player: 60.89% (G:30.99% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 39.11% (G:9.87% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.264..+0.286) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Not the best blitzing roll

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Not the best blitzing roll
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 30 Jun 2022 21:09 UTC

On Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 5:27:46 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=a-BABBB-A-c-bC---Accc---A-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O X | +---+
> | X O | | O O | | 2 |
> | X O | | O O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | O | | |
> | O O | | X X X X |
> | O O X | | X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 125 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 11
> Lifting as many blots as possible is not usually the right mindset when
> you're blitzing. However, O's position is strong enough that if she
> hits, then the game could turn around in a hurry. X doesn't have to
> commit to a blitz here; he also has racing and priming chances, and
> playing safe this turn does not preclude him from playing something
> more aggressive next turn if the dice allow it.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 24/23 8/6 3/2 eq:+0.356
> Player: 63.24% (G:31.93% B:0.51%)
> Opponent: 36.76% (G:8.50% B:0.39%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.346..+0.367) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/6 eq:+0.305 (-0.052)
> Player: 61.29% (G:33.74% B:0.69%)
> Opponent: 38.71% (G:10.51% B:0.59%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.295..+0.315) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 24/21 3/2 eq:+0.283 (-0.073)
> Player: 61.43% (G:30.39% B:0.56%)
> Opponent: 38.57% (G:9.63% B:0.47%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.273..+0.293) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/7 3/2 eq:+0.275 (-0.081)
> Player: 60.89% (G:30.99% B:0.58%)
> Opponent: 39.11% (G:9.87% B:0.45%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.264..+0.286) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
FWIW, my play is 24/21 3/2.
I'm not worried about safetying my 8 point checker
and I like being at the edge of the opponent's prime.
Of course, the rollout is (much) more likely to be correct than
I am, but that's my play anyway.

Paul

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