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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Double from the bar?

Double from the bar?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Double from the bar?
Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2022 00:28:29 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 30 Jun 2022 04:28 UTC

XGID=-ABBCBBA--Aab----abba-bbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 87 O: 91 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Double from the bar?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Double from the bar?
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by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 8 Jul 2022 12:27 UTC

XGID=-ABBCBBA--Aab----abba-bbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

I thought I was barely a favorite here, and that if I danced I would
be in big trouble, so I did not seriously consider doubling OTB. But
any hit is devastating and gammonish, and even if I dance the game
isn't over yet.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 53.92% (G:29.92% B:0.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.08% (G:3.63% B:0.14%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54.04% (G:30.24% B:0.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.96% (G:3.92% B:0.17%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.205 (-0.124)
Double/Take: +0.329
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.671)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.197..+0.213)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.316..+0.342)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
Double from the bar?	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Double from the bar?	Timothy Chow