Note that I never said that I would give the news categories in order.
Excellent news: My paste did not result in any garbling -- Tim's complained
a few times about that, I think.
Bad news: I blundered horribly here, by not covering the 6. My thinking was
that I absolutely needed to get two on the bar to have any chance of winning
and so I needed to be hit on the 6 point. But I saw the bot play as leading
to close to -1. If I knew that the bot play put my equity almost as high
as -0.5, I would have definitely played it.

Oh, I think I get it now, and can answer some of my own questions.
The correct technique is to close out when possible but, once bearing off,
to take maximal checkers off even when this leaves blots. Then I get
a shot at the ace anyway. That's why the vulnerability of the ace point blot
gives me as much as -0.5.
Anyway, an instructive position if anyone listening is dumb enough
to do what I did. I know that Tim would never do this type of thing.

Good news: I have learned from this mistake.
Very good news: It's possible that I will glean further insights from
responses on this thread.

Paul

XGID=-BBBBCA-----A-------aAA-a-:1:1:1:61:9:6:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:9 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O X X O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 6 X-O: 9-6
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61

1. XG Roller+ 21/20* 12/6 eq:-0.507
Player: 23.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 76.49% (G:4.82% B:1.19%)

2. XG Roller+ 21/20* 20/14 eq:-0.649 (-0.142)
Player: 25.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 74.74% (G:16.48% B:7.80%)

3. 2-ply 22/16 21/20* eq:-0.735 (-0.228)
Player: 22.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 77.01% (G:19.89% B:7.71%)

4. 1-ply 22/16 12/11 eq:-2.428 (-1.921)
Player: 0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 99.98% (G:99.58% B:43.30%)

5. 1-ply 22/16 3/2 eq:-2.454 (-1.947)
Player: 0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 99.98% (G:99.58% B:45.91%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

On Saturday, July 2, 2022 at 10:15:25 AM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Note that I never said that I would give the news categories in order.
> Excellent news: My paste did not result in any garbling -- Tim's complained
> a few times about that, I think.
> Bad news: I blundered horribly here, by not covering the 6. My thinking was
> that I absolutely needed to get two on the bar to have any chance of winning
> and so I needed to be hit on the 6 point. But I saw the bot play as leading
> to close to -1. If I knew that the bot play put my equity almost as high
> as -0.5, I would have definitely played it.
>
> Oh, I think I get it now, and can answer some of my own questions.
> The correct technique is to close out when possible but, once bearing off,
> to take maximal checkers off even when this leaves blots. Then I get
> a shot at the ace anyway. That's why the vulnerability of the ace point blot
> gives me as much as -0.5.
> Anyway, an instructive position if anyone listening is dumb enough
> to do what I did. I know that Tim would never do this type of thing.
>
> Good news: I have learned from this mistake.
> Very good news: It's possible that I will glean further insights from
> responses on this thread.
>
> Paul
>
> XGID=-BBBBCA-----A-------aAA-a-:1:1:1:61:9:6:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:9 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O X X O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> | X | | X X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 96 O: 6 X-O: 9-6
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 61
>
> 1. XG Roller+ 21/20* 12/6 eq:-0.507
> Player: 23.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent: 76.49% (G:4.82% B:1.19%)
>
> 2. XG Roller+ 21/20* 20/14 eq:-0.649 (-0.142)
> Player: 25.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent: 74.74% (G:16.48% B:7.80%)
>
> 3. 2-ply 22/16 21/20* eq:-0.735 (-0.228)
> Player: 22.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent: 77.01% (G:19.89% B:7.71%)
>
> 4. 1-ply 22/16 12/11 eq:-2.428 (-1.921)
> Player: 0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent: 99.98% (G:99.58% B:43.30%)
>
> 5. 1-ply 22/16 3/2 eq:-2.454 (-1.947)
> Player: 0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent: 99.98% (G:99.58% B:45.91%)
>
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
A very strong point of the bot play is that I lose no gammons.
I did actually lose a gammon here.

Paul

On Saturday, July 2, 2022 at 10:15:25 AM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Note that I never said that I would give the news categories in order.
> Excellent news: My paste did not result in any garbling -- Tim's complained
> a few times about that, I think.
> Bad news: I blundered horribly here, by not covering the 6. My thinking was
> that I absolutely needed to get two on the bar to have any chance of winning
> and so I needed to be hit on the 6 point. But I saw the bot play as leading
> to close to -1. If I knew that the bot play put my equity almost as high
> as -0.5, I would have definitely played it.
>
> Oh, I think I get it now, and can answer some of my own questions.
> The correct technique is to close out when possible but, once bearing off,
> to take maximal checkers off even when this leaves blots. Then I get
> a shot at the ace anyway. That's why the vulnerability of the ace point blot
> gives me as much as -0.5.
> Anyway, an instructive position if anyone listening is dumb enough
> to do what I did. I know that Tim would never do this type of thing.
>
> Good news: I have learned from this mistake.
> Very good news: It's possible that I will glean further insights from
> responses on this thread.
>
> Paul
>
> XGID=-BBBBCA-----A-------aAA-a-:1:1:1:61:9:6:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:9 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O X X O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> | X | | X X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 96 O: 6 X-O: 9-6
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 61
>
> 1. XG Roller+ 21/20* 12/6 eq:-0.507
> Player: 23.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent: 76.49% (G:4.82% B:1.19%)
>
> 2. XG Roller+ 21/20* 20/14 eq:-0.649 (-0.142)
> Player: 25.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent: 74.74% (G:16.48% B:7.80%)
>
> 3. 2-ply 22/16 21/20* eq:-0.735 (-0.228)
> Player: 22.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent: 77.01% (G:19.89% B:7.71%)
>
> 4. 1-ply 22/16 12/11 eq:-2.428 (-1.921)
> Player: 0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent: 99.98% (G:99.58% B:43.30%)
>
> 5. 1-ply 22/16 3/2 eq:-2.454 (-1.947)
> Player: 0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent: 99.98% (G:99.58% B:45.91%)
>
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I note though, that my play is best at DMP.
This though really is an "obvious exception" to many,
so I don't think it contradicts Stick.

Paul

On Saturday, July 2, 2022 at 5:18:40 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Saturday, July 2, 2022 at 10:15:25 AM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > Note that I never said that I would give the news categories in order.
> > Excellent news: My paste did not result in any garbling -- Tim's complained
> > a few times about that, I think.
> > Bad news: I blundered horribly here, by not covering the 6. My thinking was
> > that I absolutely needed to get two on the bar to have any chance of winning
> > and so I needed to be hit on the 6 point. But I saw the bot play as leading
> > to close to -1. If I knew that the bot play put my equity almost as high
> > as -0.5, I would have definitely played it.
> >
> > Oh, I think I get it now, and can answer some of my own questions.
> > The correct technique is to close out when possible but, once bearing off,
> > to take maximal checkers off even when this leaves blots. Then I get
> > a shot at the ace anyway. That's why the vulnerability of the ace point blot
> > gives me as much as -0.5.
> > Anyway, an instructive position if anyone listening is dumb enough
> > to do what I did. I know that Tim would never do this type of thing.
> >
> > Good news: I have learned from this mistake.
> > Very good news: It's possible that I will glean further insights from
> > responses on this thread.
> >
> > Paul
> >
> > XGID=-BBBBCA-----A-------aAA-a-:1:1:1:61:9:6:3:0:10
> > X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> >
> > Score is X:9 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | | | O X X O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X | +---+
> > | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> > | X | | X X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 96 O: 6 X-O: 9-6
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X to play 61
> >
> > 1. XG Roller+ 21/20* 12/6 eq:-0.507
> > Player: 23.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> > Opponent: 76.49% (G:4.82% B:1.19%)
> >
> > 2. XG Roller+ 21/20* 20/14 eq:-0.649 (-0.142)
> > Player: 25.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> > Opponent: 74.74% (G:16.48% B:7.80%)
> >
> > 3. 2-ply 22/16 21/20* eq:-0.735 (-0.228)
> > Player: 22.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> > Opponent: 77.01% (G:19.89% B:7.71%)
> >
> > 4. 1-ply 22/16 12/11 eq:-2.428 (-1.921)
> > Player: 0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> > Opponent: 99.98% (G:99.58% B:43.30%)
> >
> > 5. 1-ply 22/16 3/2 eq:-2.454 (-1.947)
> > Player: 0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> > Opponent: 99.98% (G:99.58% B:45.91%)
> >
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
> I note though, that my play is best at DMP.
> This though really is an "obvious exception" to many,
> so I don't think it contradicts Stick.
>
> Paul

Even without the obvious exception part, at dmp 12/6 is wrong by ~.010 or half a percent. Not exactly clear.

Stick