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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit twice?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit twice?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit twice?Timothy Chow

1
Hit twice?

<taihrb$1rdtt$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit twice?
Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2022 21:13:12 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 12 Jul 2022 01:13 UTC

XGID=--a---E-CA-abCA--acb-cB-b-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit twice?

<taqjud$2uuk0$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit twice?
Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2022 22:38:02 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 15 Jul 2022 02:38 UTC

XGID=--a---E-CA-abCA--acb-cB-b-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

Hitting twice almost equalizes the pip count, but leaving five blots
around the board when we're outboarded is a bit reckless, even when
O temporarily has two checkers on the bar. It would still be worth
considering if there were no good alternative, but 13/11* 14/9 cleans
up nicely and makes a good point. (Compare with the variant below.)

1. Rollout¹ 14/9 13/11* eq:+0.137
Player: 53.59% (G:14.74% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 46.41% (G:14.21% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.124..+0.151) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/17* 13/11* eq:+0.023 (-0.114)
Player: 52.71% (G:14.36% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 47.29% (G:22.29% B:1.66%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.009..+0.038) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--a---E-C-AabCA--acb-cB-b-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 161 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 22/17* 13/11* eq:-0.006
Player: 52.05% (G:14.37% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 47.95% (G:22.77% B:1.59%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.020..+0.008) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/9 13/11* eq:-0.061 (-0.055)
Player: 49.51% (G:13.28% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 50.49% (G:18.90% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.075..-0.046) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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