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interests / soc.culture.china / Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by Victory Day, Lavrov says

SubjectAuthor
* Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation byltlee1
+- Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operationborie
`* Re: Russia won’t try to complete UkraineA. Filip
 `* Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operationltlee1
  +* Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operationborie
  |`* Re: Russia won’t try to complete UkraineA. Filip
  | +- Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operationltlee1
  | `- Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operationbmoore
  `* Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operationltlee1
   +- Re: Russia won’t try to complete UkraineA. Filip
   `- Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operationltlee1

1
Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by Victory Day, Lavrov says

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Subject: Russia_won’t_try_to_complete_Ukraine_operation_by_
Victory_Day,_Lavrov_says
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Mon, 2 May 2022 14:35 UTC

"MOSCOW, May 2. /TASS/. Moscow won’t set artificial timeframes for its military operation in Ukraine in order to complete it by Victory Day, celebrated on May 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with Italy’s Mediaset broadcaster.

"Our troops won’t artificially base their activities on a specific date, including Victory Day," he pointed out in response to a question. "We will solemnly celebrate May 9 the way we always do," Lavrov added.

According to him, the pace of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine first and foremost depends "on the need to mitigate risks for civilians and Russian troops."

Lavrov noted that the operation was particularly aimed at ensuring the safety of civilians and making sure that there were no threats from Ukraine to civilians and Russia, "which would be related to offensive weapons and the spread of Nazi ideas that the West is trying to downplay.""

https://tass.com/politics/1446173

The longer the operation, the more Russia is played into U.S. hand. The UK as well as some Eastern European countries may not mind long operation in Ukraine too. Former Soviet bloc nations such as Czech and Poland would welcome an opportunity to exchange old Soviet era weapons for newer Western weapons.

How about Western European power such as German and France? How will a long war affect them economically?

Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by Victory Day, Lavrov says

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Subject: Re:_Russia_won’t_try_to_complete_Ukraine_operation
_by_Victory_Day,_Lavrov_says
From: zifon...@gmail.com (borie)
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 by: borie - Mon, 2 May 2022 16:58 UTC

On Monday, May 2, 2022 at 10:35:54 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> "MOSCOW, May 2. /TASS/. Moscow won’t set artificial timeframes for its military operation in Ukraine in order to complete it by Victory Day, celebrated on May 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with Italy’s Mediaset broadcaster.
>
> "Our troops won’t artificially base their activities on a specific date, including Victory Day," he pointed out in response to a question. "We will solemnly celebrate May 9 the way we always do," Lavrov added.
>
> According to him, the pace of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine first and foremost depends "on the need to mitigate risks for civilians and Russian troops."
>
> Lavrov noted that the operation was particularly aimed at ensuring the safety of civilians and making sure that there were no threats from Ukraine to civilians and Russia, "which would be related to offensive weapons and the spread of Nazi ideas that the West is trying to downplay.""
>
> https://tass.com/politics/1446173
>
> The longer the operation, the more Russia is played into U.S. hand. The UK as well as some Eastern European countries may not mind long operation in Ukraine too. Former Soviet bloc nations such as Czech and Poland would welcome an opportunity to exchange old Soviet era weapons for newer Western weapons.
>
> How about Western European power such as German and France? How will a long war affect them economically?

No need to rush to victory day. War that is going on is not the same of a victory parade.

Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says

<anfi+uc99hizf6f-m521@wp.eu>

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From: anf...@wp.eu (A. Filip)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.china
Subject: Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine
operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says
Date: Mon, 02 May 2022 21:01:35 +0000 (UTC)
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 by: A. Filip - Mon, 2 May 2022 21:01 UTC

ltlee1 <ltlee1@hotmail.com> wrote:
> "MOSCOW, May 2. /TASS/. Moscow won’t set artificial timeframes for its
> military operation in Ukraine in order to complete it by Victory Day,
> celebrated on May 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an
> interview with Italy’s Mediaset broadcaster.
[…]
> https://tass.com/politics/1446173
>
> The longer the operation, the more Russia is played into
> U.S. hand. The UK as well as some Eastern European countries may not
> mind long operation in Ukraine too. Former Soviet bloc nations such as
> Czech and Poland would welcome an opportunity to exchange old Soviet
> era weapons for newer Western weapons.
>
> How about Western European power such as German and France? How will a
> long war affect them economically?

The war at Ukrainian territory is much more costly for Ukraine
*BUT* Ukraine seems *so far* to be unwilling for "surrender" -
cease fire *at current positions*.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| If you are of the opinion that the contemplation of suicide is
| sufficient evidence of a poetic nature, do not forget that actions
| speak louder than words. (Fran Lebowitz, "Metropolitan Life")

Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says

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Subject: Re:_Russia_won’t_try_to_complete_Ukraine_operation
_by_(Europe)_Victory_Day,_Lavrov_says
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Tue, 3 May 2022 21:05 UTC

On Monday, May 2, 2022 at 5:01:56 PM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> ltlee1 wrote:
> > "MOSCOW, May 2. /TASS/. Moscow won’t set artificial timeframes for its
> > military operation in Ukraine in order to complete it by Victory Day,
> > celebrated on May 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an
> > interview with Italy’s Mediaset broadcaster.
> […]
> > https://tass.com/politics/1446173
> >
> > The longer the operation, the more Russia is played into
> > U.S. hand. The UK as well as some Eastern European countries may not
> > mind long operation in Ukraine too. Former Soviet bloc nations such as
> > Czech and Poland would welcome an opportunity to exchange old Soviet
> > era weapons for newer Western weapons.
> >
> > How about Western European power such as German and France? How will a
> > long war affect them economically?
> The war at Ukrainian territory is much more costly for Ukraine
> *BUT* Ukraine seems *so far* to be unwilling for "surrender" -
> cease fire *at current positions*.

Needless to say, the war is very costly to Ukraine and to Russia. However, if one sees the
region with a longer view, Macron's description that they are two brotherly peoples may
still hold in the future.

What are Ukraine's neighbors trying to accomplish short and long term? What strategic
goals underpinned by what assumptions, consciously and unconsciously? And at what
cost? Would such action split Europe?

"As Americans ingest the constant feed of dire reports and heartbreaking photographs from
the war in Ukraine, it behooves us to look at Europe’s views of a European conflict.

First, these views are far from harmonious; there is, as the English Russia scholar Richard
Sakwa has said, “no strategic European Union vision” on Ukraine – most members have merely
been “shamed” into upping the ante in the supply of arms.

Second, in general, Europe is divided between east and west: the new Olaf Scholz government
in Berlin sputters to create a coherent set of policies, and in France, President Emmanuel
Macron won re-election despite criticism for his willingness to engage Russian President Vladimir
Putin deep into the night before the invasion."

https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/the-folly-of-isolating-russia/

>
> --
> A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
> | If you are of the opinion that the contemplation of suicide is
> | sufficient evidence of a poetic nature, do not forget that actions
> | speak louder than words. (Fran Lebowitz, "Metropolitan Life")

Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says

<3c853239-b88c-4b94-a99a-fe50862403ban@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re:_Russia_won’t_try_to_complete_Ukraine_operation
_by_(Europe)_Victory_Day,_Lavrov_says
From: zifon...@gmail.com (borie)
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 by: borie - Tue, 3 May 2022 23:45 UTC

On Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 5:05:57 AM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Monday, May 2, 2022 at 5:01:56 PM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> > ltlee1 wrote:
> > > "MOSCOW, May 2. /TASS/. Moscow won’t set artificial timeframes for its
> > > military operation in Ukraine in order to complete it by Victory Day,
> > > celebrated on May 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an
> > > interview with Italy’s Mediaset broadcaster.
> > […]
> > > https://tass.com/politics/1446173
> > >
> > > The longer the operation, the more Russia is played into
> > > U.S. hand. The UK as well as some Eastern European countries may not
> > > mind long operation in Ukraine too. Former Soviet bloc nations such as
> > > Czech and Poland would welcome an opportunity to exchange old Soviet
> > > era weapons for newer Western weapons.
> > >
> > > How about Western European power such as German and France? How will a
> > > long war affect them economically?
> > The war at Ukrainian territory is much more costly for Ukraine
> > *BUT* Ukraine seems *so far* to be unwilling for "surrender" -
> > cease fire *at current positions*.
> Needless to say, the war is very costly to Ukraine and to Russia. However, if one sees the
> region with a longer view, Macron's description that they are two brotherly peoples may
> still hold in the future.
>
> What are Ukraine's neighbors trying to accomplish short and long term? What strategic
> goals underpinned by what assumptions, consciously and unconsciously? And at what
> cost? Would such action split Europe?
>
> "As Americans ingest the constant feed of dire reports and heartbreaking photographs from
> the war in Ukraine, it behooves us to look at Europe’s views of a European conflict.
>
> First, these views are far from harmonious; there is, as the English Russia scholar Richard
> Sakwa has said, “no strategic European Union vision” on Ukraine – most members have merely
> been “shamed” into upping the ante in the supply of arms.
>
> Second, in general, Europe is divided between east and west: the new Olaf Scholz government
> in Berlin sputters to create a coherent set of policies, and in France, President Emmanuel
> Macron won re-election despite criticism for his willingness to engage Russian President Vladimir
> Putin deep into the night before the invasion."
>
> https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/the-folly-of-isolating-russia/
> >
> > --
> > A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
> > | If you are of the opinion that the contemplation of suicide is
> > | sufficient evidence of a poetic nature, do not forget that actions
> > | speak louder than words. (Fran Lebowitz, "Metropolitan Life")

US is using Ukraine as a sucker in their war with Russia. US has no concerns about the condition of Ukraine. They will make Zelensky addicted for supply of their US and NATO arms and weapons into a long drawn war to tired out Russia. After the war, Ukraine will be destructed to dust and ash. US will then send a "big hug" multi-billion dollar bill to Ukraine for payment of their supply of arms and weapons to them. As Ukraine will be broke and emptied of money, US will ask Ukraine to pay by land, which they can then be resold to the US and EU business oligarch for a huge and mighty profit.

Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says

<anfi+i8xkmafslf-m543@wp.eu>

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Newsgroups: soc.culture.china
Subject: Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine
operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says
Date: Wed, 04 May 2022 08:44:06 +0000 (UTC)
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 by: A. Filip - Wed, 4 May 2022 08:44 UTC

borie <zifon990@gmail.com> wrote:
[…]
> US is using Ukraine as a sucker in their war with Russia. US has no
> concerns about the condition of Ukraine. They will make Zelensky
> addicted for supply of their US and NATO arms and weapons into a long
> drawn war to tired out Russia. After the war, Ukraine will be
> destructed to dust and ash. US will then send a "big hug"
> multi-billion dollar bill to Ukraine for payment of their supply of
> arms and weapons to them. As Ukraine will be broke and emptied of
> money, US will ask Ukraine to pay by land, which they can then be
> resold to the US and EU business oligarch for a huge and mighty
> profit.

<cynicism> Too strong Russian may be a too costly ally against PRC.
Too strong Russia may be an "uncomfortable" ally for PRC.
Too weak (humiliated) Russia may be "uncomfortably unpredictable" in
choosing/switching alliances (in long term). </cynicism>
International politics frequently is not based on binary logic :-)

Life is a game of reaching a few (partially) contradictory goals at once.
Do not oversimplify unaware that you oversimplify.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| His honour rooted in dishonour stood,
| And faith unfaithful kept him falsely true.
| (Alfred Lord Tennyson)

Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says

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Subject: Re:_Russia_won’t_try_to_complete_Ukraine_operation
_by_(Europe)_Victory_Day,_Lavrov_says
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Wed, 4 May 2022 13:02 UTC

On Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 4:44:55 AM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> borie <zifo...@gmail.com> wrote:
> […]
> > US is using Ukraine as a sucker in their war with Russia. US has no
> > concerns about the condition of Ukraine. They will make Zelensky
> > addicted for supply of their US and NATO arms and weapons into a long
> > drawn war to tired out Russia. After the war, Ukraine will be
> > destructed to dust and ash. US will then send a "big hug"
> > multi-billion dollar bill to Ukraine for payment of their supply of
> > arms and weapons to them. As Ukraine will be broke and emptied of
> > money, US will ask Ukraine to pay by land, which they can then be
> > resold to the US and EU business oligarch for a huge and mighty
> > profit.
> <cynicism> Too strong Russian may be a too costly ally against PRC.
> Too strong Russia may be an "uncomfortable" ally for PRC.
> Too weak (humiliated) Russia may be "uncomfortably unpredictable" in
> choosing/switching alliances (in long term). </cynicism>
> International politics frequently is not based on binary logic :-)
>
> Life is a game of reaching a few (partially) contradictory goals at once.
> Do not oversimplify unaware that you oversimplify.

Very well said.
Unfortunately, in trying to reach the last possible eyeball, US media inevitably
oversimplifies and foists this version of "truth" to the unaware public.

And of course, democratic US and autocratic China is the most damaging
oversimplification.

> --
> A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
> | His honour rooted in dishonour stood,
> | And faith unfaithful kept him falsely true.
> | (Alfred Lord Tennyson)

Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says

<e7ea22d9-92c3-4b24-8a81-ace3633185bfn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re:_Russia_won’t_try_to_complete_Ukraine_operation
_by_(Europe)_Victory_Day,_Lavrov_says
From: bmo...@nyx.net (bmoore)
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 by: bmoore - Wed, 4 May 2022 13:38 UTC

On Wednesday, May 4, 2022 at 1:44:55 AM UTC-7, A. Filip wrote:
> borie <zifo...@gmail.com> wrote:
> […]
> > US is using Ukraine as a sucker in their war with Russia. US has no
> > concerns about the condition of Ukraine. They will make Zelensky
> > addicted for supply of their US and NATO arms and weapons into a long
> > drawn war to tired out Russia. After the war, Ukraine will be
> > destructed to dust and ash. US will then send a "big hug"
> > multi-billion dollar bill to Ukraine for payment of their supply of
> > arms and weapons to them. As Ukraine will be broke and emptied of
> > money, US will ask Ukraine to pay by land, which they can then be
> > resold to the US and EU business oligarch for a huge and mighty
> > profit.
> <cynicism> Too strong Russian may be a too costly ally against PRC.
> Too strong Russia may be an "uncomfortable" ally for PRC.
> Too weak (humiliated) Russia may be "uncomfortably unpredictable" in
> choosing/switching alliances (in long term). </cynicism>
> International politics frequently is not based on binary logic :-)
>
> Life is a game of reaching a few (partially) contradictory goals at once.
> Do not oversimplify unaware that you oversimplify.

Yes. To that end, it is good to have a variety of voices. People should be free to disagree, without fear of being thrown in jail or "disappeared".

Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says

<c0340764-268b-404d-a109-daac12d81f31n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re:_Russia_won’t_try_to_complete_Ukraine_operation
_by_(Europe)_Victory_Day,_Lavrov_says
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Thu, 5 May 2022 12:36 UTC

On Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 5:05:57 PM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Monday, May 2, 2022 at 5:01:56 PM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> > ltlee1 wrote:
> > > "MOSCOW, May 2. /TASS/. Moscow won’t set artificial timeframes for its
> > > military operation in Ukraine in order to complete it by Victory Day,
> > > celebrated on May 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an
> > > interview with Italy’s Mediaset broadcaster.
> > […]
> > > https://tass.com/politics/1446173
> > >
> > > The longer the operation, the more Russia is played into
> > > U.S. hand. The UK as well as some Eastern European countries may not
> > > mind long operation in Ukraine too. Former Soviet bloc nations such as
> > > Czech and Poland would welcome an opportunity to exchange old Soviet
> > > era weapons for newer Western weapons.
> > >
> > > How about Western European power such as German and France? How will a
> > > long war affect them economically?
> > The war at Ukrainian territory is much more costly for Ukraine
> > *BUT* Ukraine seems *so far* to be unwilling for "surrender" -
> > cease fire *at current positions*.
> Needless to say, the war is very costly to Ukraine and to Russia. However, if one sees the
> region with a longer view, Macron's description that they are two brotherly peoples may
> still hold in the future.
>
> What are Ukraine's neighbors trying to accomplish short and long term? What strategic
> goals underpinned by what assumptions, consciously and unconsciously? And at what
> cost? Would such action split Europe?
>
> "As Americans ingest the constant feed of dire reports and heartbreaking photographs from
> the war in Ukraine, it behooves us to look at Europe’s views of a European conflict.
>
> First, these views are far from harmonious; there is, as the English Russia scholar Richard
> Sakwa has said, “no strategic European Union vision” on Ukraine – most members have merely
> been “shamed” into upping the ante in the supply of arms.
>
> Second, in general, Europe is divided between east and west: the new Olaf Scholz government
> in Berlin sputters to create a coherent set of policies, and in France, President Emmanuel
> Macron won re-election despite criticism for his willingness to engage Russian President Vladimir
> Putin deep into the night before the invasion."
>
> https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/the-folly-of-isolating-russia/

Anyway, the bottom line question whether Russia prolonging the conflict from a position of
strength or from a position of weakness. The same for EU nations. They are prepared for
short term pain. Have they prepared their citizens and economies with Russia gas and oil
being cut off?

Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says

<anfi+pjlb8d47zf-m554@wp.eu>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=9266&group=soc.culture.china#9266

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From: anf...@wp.eu (A. Filip)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.china
Subject: Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine
operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says
Date: Thu, 05 May 2022 14:03:32 +0000 (UTC)
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 by: A. Filip - Thu, 5 May 2022 14:03 UTC

ltlee1 <ltlee1@hotmail.com> wrote:
> On Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 5:05:57 PM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
>> On Monday, May 2, 2022 at 5:01:56 PM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
>> > ltlee1 wrote:
>> > > "MOSCOW, May 2. /TASS/. Moscow won’t set artificial timeframes for its
>> > > military operation in Ukraine in order to complete it by Victory Day,
>> > > celebrated on May 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an
>> > > interview with Italy’s Mediaset broadcaster.
>> > […]
>> > > https://tass.com/politics/1446173
>> > >
>> > > The longer the operation, the more Russia is played into
>> > > U.S. hand. The UK as well as some Eastern European countries may not
>> > > mind long operation in Ukraine too. Former Soviet bloc nations such as
>> > > Czech and Poland would welcome an opportunity to exchange old Soviet
>> > > era weapons for newer Western weapons.
>> > >
>> > > How about Western European power such as German and France? How will a
>> > > long war affect them economically?
>> > The war at Ukrainian territory is much more costly for Ukraine
>> > *BUT* Ukraine seems *so far* to be unwilling for "surrender" -
>> > cease fire *at current positions*.
>> Needless to say, the war is very costly to Ukraine and to Russia. However, if one sees the
>> region with a longer view, Macron's description that they are two brotherly peoples may
>> still hold in the future.
>>
>> What are Ukraine's neighbors trying to accomplish short and long term? What strategic
>> goals underpinned by what assumptions, consciously and unconsciously? And at what
>> cost? Would such action split Europe?
>>
>> "As Americans ingest the constant feed of dire reports and heartbreaking photographs from
>> the war in Ukraine, it behooves us to look at Europe’s views of a European conflict.
>>
>> First, these views are far from harmonious; there is, as the English Russia scholar Richard
>> Sakwa has said, “no strategic European Union vision” on Ukraine – most members have merely
>> been “shamed” into upping the ante in the supply of arms.
>>
>> Second, in general, Europe is divided between east and west: the new Olaf Scholz government
>> in Berlin sputters to create a coherent set of policies, and in France, President Emmanuel
>> Macron won re-election despite criticism for his willingness to engage Russian President Vladimir
>> Putin deep into the night before the invasion."
>>
>> https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/the-folly-of-isolating-russia/
>
> Anyway, the bottom line question whether Russia prolonging the
> conflict from a position of strength or from a position of
> weakness. The same for EU nations. They are prepared for short term
> pain. Have they prepared their citizens and economies with Russia gas
> and oil being cut off?

Position of strength would require "conquering" Ukraine (at least regime change).
Position of weakness would require fighting at Russia territory.
IMHO the most likely scenario at very least would include making two
people republics bigger. It is going to be a mix of weakness and
strength with proportions being crucial, even perceived proportions.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| A fanatic is a person who can't change his mind and won't change
| the subject. (Winston Churchill)

Re: Russia won’t try to complete Ukraine operation by (Europe) Victory Day, Lavrov says

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Subject: Re:_Russia_won’t_try_to_complete_Ukraine_operation
_by_(Europe)_Victory_Day,_Lavrov_says
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Sun, 8 May 2022 10:36 UTC

On Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 8:37:01 AM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Tuesday, May 3, 2022 at 5:05:57 PM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Monday, May 2, 2022 at 5:01:56 PM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> > > ltlee1 wrote:
> > > > "MOSCOW, May 2. /TASS/. Moscow won’t set artificial timeframes for its
> > > > military operation in Ukraine in order to complete it by Victory Day,
> > > > celebrated on May 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an
> > > > interview with Italy’s Mediaset broadcaster.
> > > […]
> > > > https://tass.com/politics/1446173
> > > >
> > > > The longer the operation, the more Russia is played into
> > > > U.S. hand. The UK as well as some Eastern European countries may not
> > > > mind long operation in Ukraine too. Former Soviet bloc nations such as
> > > > Czech and Poland would welcome an opportunity to exchange old Soviet
> > > > era weapons for newer Western weapons.
> > > >
> > > > How about Western European power such as German and France? How will a
> > > > long war affect them economically?
> > > The war at Ukrainian territory is much more costly for Ukraine
> > > *BUT* Ukraine seems *so far* to be unwilling for "surrender" -
> > > cease fire *at current positions*.
> > Needless to say, the war is very costly to Ukraine and to Russia. However, if one sees the
> > region with a longer view, Macron's description that they are two brotherly peoples may
> > still hold in the future.
> >
> > What are Ukraine's neighbors trying to accomplish short and long term? What strategic
> > goals underpinned by what assumptions, consciously and unconsciously? And at what
> > cost? Would such action split Europe?
> >
> > "As Americans ingest the constant feed of dire reports and heartbreaking photographs from
> > the war in Ukraine, it behooves us to look at Europe’s views of a European conflict.
> >
> > First, these views are far from harmonious; there is, as the English Russia scholar Richard
> > Sakwa has said, “no strategic European Union vision” on Ukraine – most members have merely
> > been “shamed” into upping the ante in the supply of arms.
> >
> > Second, in general, Europe is divided between east and west: the new Olaf Scholz government
> > in Berlin sputters to create a coherent set of policies, and in France, President Emmanuel
> > Macron won re-election despite criticism for his willingness to engage Russian President Vladimir
> > Putin deep into the night before the invasion."
> >
> > https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/the-folly-of-isolating-russia/
> Anyway, the bottom line question whether Russia prolonging the conflict from a position of
> strength or from a position of weakness. The same for EU nations. They are prepared for
> short term pain. Have they prepared their citizens and economies with Russia gas and oil
> being cut off?

Negative Western reaction such as economic sanction should be part of Russia's expected cost
for its special operation. Deteriorating economy would certainly put a limit on operational time
horizon. But its economy seems to be resilient. According to Economist.com analysis,
Russia’s economy is back on its feet.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/07/russias-economy-is-back-on-its-feet?
Longer war is rational if overall cost-benefit ration is more favorable and not necessarily a
sign of political weakness.

1
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