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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: 5pt or double hit?

SubjectAuthor
* 5pt or double hit?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: 5pt or double hit?Timothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: 5pt or double hit?atila...@gmail.com
  `- Re: Rollout: 5pt or double hit?Timothy Chow

1
5pt or double hit?

<taqjvq$2uuk0$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 5pt or double hit?
Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2022 22:38:49 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 15 Jul 2022 02:38 UTC

XGID=--aa--EaC--AdC---c-eBA----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X O | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 5pt or double hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 5pt or double hit?
Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2022 22:39:50 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 17 Jul 2022 02:39 UTC

XGID=--aa--EaC--AdC---c-eBA----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X O | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

The double hit didn't look very appetizing to me, so I just made the
5pt. However, XG favors the double hit. After 13/7* 6/3*, X does
have 10 checkers in the zone, so a blitz could work, even though X
has not made any new points on his side of the board yet. It still
looks strange to me, though.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 6/3* eq:+0.409
Player: 58.91% (G:18.42% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 41.09% (G:9.46% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.393..+0.425) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/5 eq:+0.334 (-0.075)
Player: 57.18% (G:16.80% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 42.82% (G:7.48% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.321..+0.348) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 5pt or double hit?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 5pt or double hit?
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Sun, 17 Jul 2022 12:28 UTC

17 Temmuz 2022 Pazar tarihinde saat 05:39:57 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=--aa--EaC--AdC---c-eBA----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X X |
> | X O | | O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X X O | | X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 165 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 63
> The double hit didn't look very appetizing to me, so I just made the
> 5pt. However, XG favors the double hit. After 13/7* 6/3*, X does
> have 10 checkers in the zone, so a blitz could work, even though X
> has not made any new points on his side of the board yet. It still
> looks strange to me, though.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 6/3* eq:+0.409
> Player: 58.91% (G:18.42% B:0.94%)
> Opponent: 41.09% (G:9.46% B:0.35%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.393..+0.425) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/5 eq:+0.334 (-0.075)
> Player: 57.18% (G:16.80% B:0.54%)
> Opponent: 42.82% (G:7.48% B:0.31%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.321..+0.348) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
Similarly, XG prefers a double hit for 3-1. The game has just started and I think the most important thing here is to seize the initiative.

Re: Rollout: 5pt or double hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: 5pt or double hit?
Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2022 23:37:52 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 18 Jul 2022 03:37 UTC

On 7/17/2022 8:28 AM, atila...@gmail.com wrote:
> Similarly, XG prefers a double hit for 3-1. The game has just started and I think the most important thing here is to seize the initiative.

It still take judgment to assess that the blitz has good
chances to succeed. If we move X's straggler back to the 24pt
then XG thinks the decision is much closer.

XGID=--aa--EaC--AdC---c-eB---A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X O | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 169 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 13/7* 6/3* eq:+0.388
Player: 58.29% (G:18.82% B:0.96%)
Opponent: 41.71% (G:9.84% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.377..+0.399) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/5 eq:+0.367 (-0.021)
Player: 57.31% (G:19.12% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 42.69% (G:8.03% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.357..+0.377) - [0.3%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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