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For people who like that kind of book, that is the kind of book they will like.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Pay now?

Pay now?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Pay now?
Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2022 00:32:25 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 19 Jul 2022 04:32 UTC

XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB-----abbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Pay now?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Pay now?
Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2022 08:11:22 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 20 Jul 2022 12:11 UTC

XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB-----abbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

O is stripped, so I thought that if I waited this one out, I might
be able to concede just a single direct shot instead of a double
direct shot. But O has a blot in her board, which is evidently enough
to make XG pay now (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.205
Player: 62.30% (G:16.02% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 37.70% (G:4.84% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.197..+0.213) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:+0.136 (-0.069)
Player: 58.40% (G:15.85% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 41.60% (G:6.02% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.129..+0.143) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB----a-bbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
| O X O | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:+0.195
Player: 60.78% (G:16.40% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 39.22% (G:5.04% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.187..+0.203) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.162 (-0.032)
Player: 61.57% (G:12.52% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 38.43% (G:4.45% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.154..+0.171) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Pay now?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Pay now?
Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2022 10:09:03 -0400
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by: ah....Clem - Wed, 20 Jul 2022 14:09 UTC

On 7/19/2022 12:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB-----abbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X                |   | O O O O O    | +---+
> | X                |   |    O O O O    | | 2 |
> |                  |   |                  | +---+
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |             X    |   |                  |
> |             X    |   |       X          |
> | O           X O |   | X O X     X X |
> | O           X O |   | X O X     X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 88 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 54

Paying now looks sound. Only 11 shots and when missed X is gin.

But I'll pay later since sometimes you don't need to pay at all, and her
board won't last much longer unless she runs off one of the anchors.

8/3 8/4.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Pay now?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Pay now?
Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2022 21:28:30 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 21 Jul 2022 01:28 UTC

On 7/20/2022 10:09 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 7/19/2022 12:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
>> XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB-----abbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>>
>> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
>> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>>   +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>>   | X                |   | O O O O O    | +---+
>>   | X                |   |    O O O O    | | 2 |
>>   |                  |   |                  | +---+
>>   |                  |   |                  |
>>   |                  |   |                  |
>>   |                  |BAR|                  |
>>   |                  |   |                  |
>>   |             X    |   |                  |
>>   |             X    |   |       X          |
>>   | O           X O |   | X O X     X X |
>>   | O           X O |   | X O X     X X |
>>   +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>> Pip count X: 88 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
>> Cube: 2, O own cube
>> X to play 54
>
> Paying now looks sound. Only 11 shots and when missed X is gin.

Paying now with 13/9 13/8 gives O 20 shots, not 11 shots.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Pay now?

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Subject: Re: Pay now?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 21 Jul 2022 08:30 UTC

On Thursday, July 21, 2022 at 2:28:33 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 7/20/2022 10:09 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
> > On 7/19/2022 12:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> >> XGID=-BB-CbBbD---bB-----abbbb--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
> >>
> >> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> >> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> >> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> >> | X | | O O O O O | +---+
> >> | X | | O O O O | | 2 |
> >> | | | | +---+
> >> | | | |
> >> | | | |
> >> | |BAR| |
> >> | | | |
> >> | X | | |
> >> | X | | X |
> >> | O X O | | X O X X X |
> >> | O X O | | X O X X X |
> >> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> >> Pip count X: 88 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> >> Cube: 2, O own cube
> >> X to play 54
> >
> > Paying now looks sound. Only 11 shots and when missed X is gin.
> Paying now with 13/9 13/8 gives O 20 shots, not 11 shots.

Being hit is not so bad, if you reenter immediately. So the bot play gives about 25%
probability of a terrible sequence.
The blot on the board argues for the bot play for two reasons:
1) You may hit back.
2) The opponent is preparing to cover the blot, in which case delaying the attempt to
run home will be costly.

Having said all that, it's such a difficult call to make, when you don't have bot-like ability
to examine all possibilities 4 ply.
I'm sure I would have got this wrong.
I wonder how world-class players handle these situations.
Unfortunately, Stick never lets us know this, because he never gets any problems wrong.

Paul

Subject	Author
Pay now?	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Pay now?	Timothy Chow
Re: Pay now?	ah....Clem
Re: Pay now?	Timothy Chow
Re: Pay now?	peps...@gmail.com