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interests / rec.games.backgammon / One more noncontact cube action

SubjectAuthor
* One more noncontact cube actionTimothy Chow
+- Rollout: One more noncontact cube actionTimothy Chow
`- Re: One more noncontact cube actionah....Clem

1
One more noncontact cube action

<tbe801$34s5p$4@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: One more noncontact cube action
Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2022 09:16:48 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 22 Jul 2022 13:16 UTC

XGID=-C-BBB-a-----------b----b-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 4 |
| O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 27 O: 32 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: One more noncontact cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: One more noncontact cube action
Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2022 08:58:58 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 24 Jul 2022 12:58 UTC

XGID=-C-BBB-a-----------b----b-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 4 |
| O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 27 O: 32 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

In positions like this one, I usually don't use formulas. I imagine
that the player with the straggler rolls about 8 pips each time, in
order to visualize what's likely to happen. Here we see that O can
bear off in 4 rolls without rolling doublets, but only if she is
lucky enough (on her second roll) to bear in and bear off, and then
not miss despite her poor distribution. X, on the other hand, will
typically bear off in 5 rolls---e.g., if he doesn't roll doublets
and misses only once.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 73.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.756 (-0.101)
Redouble/Take: +0.856
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.144)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Search interval: Gigantic
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.754..+0.758)
Confidence Double: ± 0.003 (+0.853..+0.859)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: One more noncontact cube action

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: One more noncontact cube action
Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2022 16:50:59 -0400
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 by: ah....Clem - Sun, 24 Jul 2022 20:50 UTC

On 7/22/2022 9:16 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-C-BBB-a-----------b----b-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 2   O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |                  |   | O              O |
>  |                  |   | O              O |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                X | +---+
>  |                  |   |    X  X  X     X | | 4 |
>  |                O |   |    X  X  X     X | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 27  O: 32 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 4, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

Ok, I'll try again, while knowing that these examples were probably
chosen because the usual race cube formulas don't work for them. This
one actually looks like something where I'd be wary of simply using a
race cube formula, but let's give it a shot:

Add 4 to X's pipcount, and add 3 to O's. That gives 31 - 35. Point of
last take is three, so that would imply D/T.

But to me it looks about like a 5 roll position, which would be ND/T.
I'll go with that.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

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