XGID=-aBB-BCB-a-AbB---bAbe-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

On Sunday, July 24, 2022 at 2:38:38 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aBB-BCB-a-AbB---bAbe-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O X | | O O O |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X X X X |
> | O X O X | | X X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 107 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

Big pass.
I don't think it's TG though (assuming non-Jacoby).
I don't think it's an "action double" because an action double means (to me)
that:
1) You have a threat that you're an underdog to make.
2) Your opponent is doing fine if you miss the threat.
3) You double anyway because the threat is somewhat (though less than 50%) likely to happen,
and you hugely lose your market if so.

Here, we're favourites to hit and, even if we don't hit, we're big favourites anyway.

It seems clear that the opponent has enough play that we're not TG.
If we miss the shot, the opponent has a huge ask to overcome the race deficit and get past
our strong broken prime.
The stack on the 5 point is horrible for the opponent, giving huge containment difficulties
for the opponent if we do get hit.

I think taking would be something like a 0.3 blunder.
Let's see what the hitting probability (for the blot on our 9 point) is:
4 or 2 gives 5/9.
A combo 2 adds 1/36.
A combo 4 adds 31 which is 1/18.
Now, we need to consider nines.
33 doesn't work.
54 has already been counted.
So we only get 63 for another 1/18.

So our hitting probability is 25/36.
But pointing on the ace point blot is pretty devastating too.

Paul

On 7/24/2022 9:38 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aBB-BCB-a-AbB---bAbe-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O  X |   | O  O     O       |
>  | X           O    |   | O  O     O       |
>  |                  |   |    O             |
>  |                  |   |    O             |
>  |                  |   |    O             |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O              X |   | X  X     X  X    |
>  | O  X     O     X |   | X  X     X  X  O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 107  O: 125 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

Most hits are market losers and I'm not seeing many bad sequences, so
O'Hagen's law would say ship it.

X has the better position and a lead in the race for 2 of 3 PRAT, which
implies D/T. But the fact that X is on roll means the threats are in
his favor, so maybe it's a pass, or even TG.

OTB, I'd probably take a shake and see what happens. It seems to flip
to TG fairly often. But thinking about it some more, if I'm not sure if
it's a pass or not it must be a cube, or at least a practical one
against humans since some will get the take decision wrong.

I'll say D/P.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

XGID=-aBB-BCB-a-AbB---bAbe-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

XG says this one is clearly too good. I often fail to consider that
I might be TG when my opponent is not on the bar.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 79.64% (G:37.89% B:0.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.36% (G:4.54% B:0.31%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.80% (G:38.70% B:0.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.20% (G:5.12% B:0.47%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +1.080
Double/Take: +1.730 (+0.650)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.080)

Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 11.0%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+1.071..+1.089)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+1.718..+1.742)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow