novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon

A boring position

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Subject: A boring position
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 30 Jul 2022 10:55 UTC

Well, I found it interesting, or I wouldn't have posted it.
But I'm sure many people would find it boring, too.
Here (rather shamefully), I miscounted the pips and doubled.
I wouldn't have doubled if I had counted correctly.

What interests me is that, although XG is very close to a beaver,
the double isn't so terrible (by my standards). Just a 0.03 loss.

In cube action problems, the beaver question tends to be
given short shrift. If we don't consider beavers, then the
action is too obviously ND/T to be worth posing as a problem.

Paul

XGID=-BBBBBBA----a-----Bdbcbab-:0:0:1:00:14:27:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
3:0:10

Score is X:14 O:27. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 85 O: 69 X-O: 14-27
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 60.12% (G:1.45% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.88% (G:0.26% B:0.01%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.214, Double=+0.404

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.051
Double/Take: +0.021 (-0.030)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.949)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.9%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Re: A boring position

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
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Subject: Re: A boring position
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 30 Jul 2022 12:58 UTC

On 7/30/2022 6:55 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> In cube action problems, the beaver question tends to be
> given short shrift.

There's a good reason for this. In practice, decisions to
beaver involve a heavy dose of non-mathematical considerations.

---
Tim Chow

Re: A boring position

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Subject: Re: A boring position
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 30 Jul 2022 17:21 UTC

On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 1:58:56 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 7/30/2022 6:55 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > In cube action problems, the beaver question tends to be
> > given short shrift.
> There's a good reason for this. In practice, decisions to
> beaver involve a heavy dose of non-mathematical considerations.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Yes.
Let's ignore Kauder paradoxes and let's assume equal strength play.
A player might reason that their equity is improved by beavering.
However, the other player has reasoned that their equity is improved by doubling.
So we need a meta-judgment about whether the opponent is more likely to be correct
than we are.

Paul

Prosperity makes friends, adversity tries them. -- Publilius Syrus

interests / rec.games.backgammon / A boring position

Subject	Author
A boring position	peps...@gmail.com
Re: A boring position	Timothy Chow
Re: A boring position	peps...@gmail.com