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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: How modest am I?

SubjectAuthor
* How modest am I?peps...@gmail.com
`* Re: How modest am I?Tim Chow
 `* Re: How modest am I?peps...@gmail.com
  `- Re: How modest am I?peps...@gmail.com

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How modest am I?

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Subject: How modest am I?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 30 Jul 2022 18:10 UTC

Here, I passed XG's double.
But am I humbly and courageously confessing to an
egregious backgammon error?
Or am I shamelessly bragging about a truly excellent play?

(The fact that XG should cube seems too obvious to be worth
stating.)

Paul

XGID=-a--a-EBB--AcDa--b-bcb---A:0:0:-1:00:13:6:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

Score is X:6 O:13. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 6-13
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Re: How modest am I?

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Subject: Re: How modest am I?
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Tim Chow)
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 by: Tim Chow - Sun, 31 Jul 2022 12:57 UTC

On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:10:35 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> XGID=-a--a-EBB--AcDa--b-bcb---A:0:0:-1:00:13:6:3:0:10
> X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
>
> Score is X:6 O:13. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O X X |
> | X O O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | O | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X X | | X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 6-13
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

I think this is a take. XG's 8/6/5/4 formation is very strong and
there is also a tenth checker (almost) in the zone, but you have
only one checker back, and you have made your bar point. It does
give me pause that you have another blot that could get picked
up, but it's currently not subject to a direct shot.

---
Tim Chow

Re: How modest am I?

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Subject: Re: How modest am I?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 31 Jul 2022 15:31 UTC

On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:57:05 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:10:35 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > XGID=-a--a-EBB--AcDa--b-bcb---A:0:0:-1:00:13:6:3:0:10
> > X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
> >
> > Score is X:6 O:13. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O O | | O X X |
> > | X O O | | O |
> > | X | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | O | | |
> > | O | | X |
> > | O X | | X X X |
> > | O X X | | X X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 6-13
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> I think this is a take. XG's 8/6/5/4 formation is very strong and
> there is also a tenth checker (almost) in the zone, but you have
> only one checker back, and you have made your bar point. It does
> give me pause that you have another blot that could get picked
> up, but it's currently not subject to a direct shot.

Yes, but quite a thin take. My drop cost me about 0.055.
Good analysis.

Paul

Re: How modest am I?

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Subject: Re: How modest am I?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 31 Jul 2022 18:12 UTC

On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 4:31:44 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:57:05 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> > On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:10:35 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > XGID=-a--a-EBB--AcDa--b-bcb---A:0:0:-1:00:13:6:3:0:10
> > > X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
> > >
> > > Score is X:6 O:13. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | X O O O | | O X X |
> > > | X O O | | O |
> > > | X | | O |
> > > | | | O |
> > > | | | O |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | O | |
> > > | O | | |
> > > | O | | X |
> > > | O X | | X X X |
> > > | O X X | | X X X |
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 6-13
> > > Cube: 1
> > > X on roll, cube action
> > I think this is a take. XG's 8/6/5/4 formation is very strong and
> > there is also a tenth checker (almost) in the zone, but you have
> > only one checker back, and you have made your bar point. It does
> > give me pause that you have another blot that could get picked
> > up, but it's currently not subject to a direct shot.
> Yes, but quite a thin take. My drop cost me about 0.055.
> Good analysis.
>
> Paul

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 67.88% (G:27.02% B:0.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.12% (G:5.50% B:0.26%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.83% (G:29.86% B:0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.17% (G:6.14% B:0.29%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.577, Double=+1.194

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.790 (-0.153)
Double/Take: +0.942
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.058)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.778..+0.801)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.926..+0.959)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 49 minutes 47 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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