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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Choose the lesser evil

SubjectAuthor
* Choose the lesser evilTim Chow
+* Re: Choose the lesser evilah....Clem
|`- Re: Choose the lesser evilTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Choose the lesser evilTimothy Chow

1
Choose the lesser evil

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Subject: Choose the lesser evil
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Tim Chow)
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 by: Tim Chow - Tue, 2 Aug 2022 19:58 UTC

XGID=-bCBC-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O |
| O | | O O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

Re: Choose the lesser evil

<tceh8a$2dquc$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Choose the lesser evil
Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2022 15:11:06 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
Lines: 32
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 by: ah....Clem - Wed, 3 Aug 2022 19:11 UTC

On 8/2/2022 3:58 PM, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-bCBC-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O O X O |
> | O | | O O O X O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X X |
> | X | | X X X X O |
> | X | | X X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 100 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 42

Breaking the bar point gives O a chance to escape with tempo, or just
escape. If we hold it she still has a lot of work to do even if we're
stuck on the bar. 22/18 for sure, then 4/2 looks a bit more flexible
than 6/4.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Choose the lesser evil

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Choose the lesser evil
Date: Thu, 4 Aug 2022 09:43:03 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 4 Aug 2022 13:43 UTC

On 8/3/2022 3:11 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 8/2/2022 3:58 PM, Tim Chow wrote:
>> XGID=-bCBC-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
>>
>> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
>> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>>   +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>>   |          O       |   | O  O  O  X  O    |
>>   |          O       |   | O  O  O  X  O    |
>>   |                  |   | O           O    |
>>   |                  |   |             O    |
>>   |                  |   |                  |
>>   |                  |BAR|                  |
>>   |                  |   |                  |
>>   |                  |   |                  |
>>   |                  |   | X     X     X    |
>>   |                X |   | X     X  X  X  O |
>>   |                X |   | X     X  X  X  O |
>>   +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>> Pip count  X: 100  O: 110 X-O: 0-0
>> Cube: 1
>> X to play 42
>
>
> Breaking the bar point gives O a chance to escape with tempo, or just
> escape.  If we hold it she still has a lot of work to do even if we're
> stuck on the bar. 22/18 for sure, then 4/2 looks a bit more flexible
> than 6/4.

It's possible to hold the bar point and hold the anchor, with 6/2 4/2.

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Choose the lesser evil

<tcgikf$2qpkm$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Choose the lesser evil
Date: Thu, 4 Aug 2022 09:46:53 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 4 Aug 2022 13:46 UTC

XGID=-bCBC-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O |
| O | | O O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

Breaking anchor exposes X to a whole lot of shots, but according
to XG, stacking up on the 2pt is even worse. See the variant for
comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 22/18 4/2 eq:+0.284
Player: 57.25% (G:15.75% B:1.17%)
Opponent: 42.75% (G:10.49% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.271..+0.297) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/18 6/4 eq:+0.241 (-0.043)
Player: 56.64% (G:15.00% B:1.04%)
Opponent: 43.36% (G:10.46% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.227..+0.255) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/2 4/2 eq:+0.201 (-0.083)
Player: 55.73% (G:10.15% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 44.27% (G:8.98% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.190..+0.211) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-bBBD-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O |
| O | | O O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 6/2 4/2 eq:+0.398
Player: 60.59% (G:12.01% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 39.41% (G:7.99% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.390..+0.406) - [76.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/18 4/2 eq:+0.394 (-0.004)
Player: 59.66% (G:17.26% B:1.22%)
Opponent: 40.34% (G:10.12% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.384..+0.403) - [23.3%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

1
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