novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - Rollout: 3-away/2-away cube action

3-away/2-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 3-away/2-away cube action
Date: Sun, 7 Aug 2022 10:09:21 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 7 Aug 2022 14:09 UTC

Bonus question: What's the cube action for money?

XGID=aABBBBC----Ab---a-bbbcbB--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 114 X-O: 4-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: 3-away/2-away cube action

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 3-away/2-away cube action
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 11:34:02 -0400
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by: ah...Clem - Mon, 8 Aug 2022 15:34 UTC

On 8/7/2022 10:09 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
>
> Bonus question: What's the cube action for money?
>
>
> XGID=aABBBBC----Ab---a-bbbcbB--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> |          O     O |   | O O O O X    |
> |                O |   | O O O O X    |
> |                  |   |       O          |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  | O |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   | X                |
> | O                |   | X X X X X    |
> | O X             |   | X X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 104 O: 114 X-O: 4-5/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

Any six is a market loser unless O hits from the bar. 5s are also
probably market losers other than 55. O can't recube, so might as well
ship it. But X still has work to do so probably a take. R/T

For money, the recube vig seems high enough that I'd hold. Might be a
beaver? I don't play with beavers, so my opinion on that is not worth much.

Re: 3-away/2-away cube action

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Subject: Re: 3-away/2-away cube action
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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by: Stick Rice - Tue, 9 Aug 2022 04:06 UTC

On Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 10:09:24 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> Bonus question: What's the cube action for money?
>
>
> XGID=aABBBBC----Ab---a-bbbcbB--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O O O O X |
> | O | | O O O O X |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 104 O: 114 X-O: 4-5/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Generally speaking, I think of the position for money first knowing both sides of the cube action and then I move on to what the score actually is is and what effect that score might have on the cube action. It's much easier that way.

Stick

Rollout: 3-away/2-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 3-away/2-away cube action
Date: Tue, 9 Aug 2022 09:00:46 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 9 Aug 2022 13:00 UTC

XGID=aABBBBC----Ab---a-bbbcbB--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10

Ah_clem's assessment of this position was much better than mine.
For money, the XG rollout below says this is a beaver (though
only just). But at 3-away/2-away, XG says its a massive double
(though a trivial take).

The practical value of this position is debatable. Typically,
at 3-away/2-away, the 3-away player will have a double long before
reaching a position like this one. Indeed, in the actual game,
XG says I missed two doubles earlier on.

By the way, in the actual game, I was X, and I did not double.
I then rolled 44 and was glad I hadn't doubled. It was then
XG 3-ply's turn to miss a double!

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 51.29% (G:27.11% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.71% (G:9.52% B:0.72%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.26% (G:27.06% B:0.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.74% (G:9.28% B:0.72%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.318 (-0.160)
Double/Take: +0.478
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.522)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
First 3 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.311..+0.324)
Confidence Double: ± 0.007 (+0.471..+0.485)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=aABBBBC----Ab---a-bbbcbB--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 51.85% (G:26.60% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.15% (G:11.35% B:0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.83% (G:27.20% B:0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.17% (G:11.97% B:0.59%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.030
Double/Beaver: -0.054 (-0.084)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.970)

Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.4%

Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.022..+0.038)
Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (-0.076..-0.032)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

If there is no God, who pops up the next Kleenex? -- Art Hoppe

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 3-away/2-away cube action

Subject	Author
3-away/2-away cube action	Timothy Chow
Re: 3-away/2-away cube action	ah...Clem
Re: 3-away/2-away cube action	Stick Rice
Rollout: 3-away/2-away cube action	Timothy Chow