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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Only two legal moves

SubjectAuthor
* Only two legal movesTimothy Chow
+- Rollout: Only two legal movesTimothy Chow
`- Re: Only two legal movesah....Clem

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Only two legal moves

<td2vh5$2661p$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Only two legal moves
Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2022 09:17:24 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 11 Aug 2022 13:17 UTC

XGID=aBADB-b-Ab----A--bbbbb----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O | +---+
| O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | O X X X |
| O X | | O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 46 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Only two legal moves

<td89ae$2rank$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Only two legal moves
Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2022 09:35:08 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 13 Aug 2022 13:35 UTC

XGID=aBADB-b-Ab----A--bbbbb----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O | +---+
| O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | O X X X |
| O X | | O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 46 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

One's first instinct is that 14/10 8/3 is the safer play, but if
you count shots, you'll find that O has 20 hitting rolls after either
play. It might seem that getting hit twice, or having three blots
lying around, is worse, but X can't be gammoned and O owns the cube,
so to a first approximation you can think of getting hit as being a
simple loss regardless of how many blots get hit. The key point is
that after 14/5, it's much easier for X to clean up if he is *not*
hit. That makes 14/5 the better play.

1. Rollout¹ 14/5 eq:+0.261
Player: 52.83% (G:42.77% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 47.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.254..+0.267) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/10 8/3 eq:+0.122 (-0.138)
Player: 49.69% (G:37.63% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 50.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.114..+0.131) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Only two legal moves

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Only two legal moves
Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2022 12:34:53 -0400
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 by: ah....Clem - Sat, 13 Aug 2022 16:34 UTC

On 8/11/2022 9:17 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=aBADB-b-Ab----A--bbbbb----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |    X        O  O |   | O  O  O          | +---+
>  |             O  O |   | O  O  O          | | 2 |
>  |                  |   |                  | +---+
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  |                  |   |          X       |
>  |                  |   |          X       |
>  |          O       |   | O     X  X     X |
>  |          O  X    |   | O     X  X  X  X |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 46  O: 155 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 54

I suck at shot counting, but 14/10 8/3 seems to leave fewer shots so
I'll go with that. I'm at least 50% to get this one right.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

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