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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Best way to contain?

SubjectAuthor
* Best way to contain?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Best way to contain?ah....Clem
`- Rollout: Best way to contain?Timothy Chow

1
Best way to contain?

<tdlb7c$11e1t$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Best way to contain?
Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2022 08:27:22 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 18 Aug 2022 12:27 UTC

XGID=-a-BB-C-BB-A-C--a--ccbcb--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Re: Best way to contain?

<tdmbiu$15r85$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Best way to contain?
Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2022 17:39:42 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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In-Reply-To: <tdlb7c$11e1t$2@dont-email.me>
 by: ah....Clem - Thu, 18 Aug 2022 21:39 UTC

On 8/18/2022 8:27 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a-BB-C-BB-A-C--a--ccbcb--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X        O       |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
>  | X                |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
>  | X                |   | O  O     O       |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |          X  X    |   | X     X  X       |
>  |    X     X  X    |   | X     X  X     O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 116  O: 87 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 65

I don't think it's correct to expose a direct shot, but we have to leave
an indirect. That leaves 9/3 for the six. Then a single indirect looks
better than a double indirect shot, so 13/8 is out as the follow on.

That leaves 11/6 or 9/4 and 9/4 looks more flexible.

The other approach is to hit loose on the ace, but while that works
great when it does, 13 shots is too much for my tastes against a solid
five point board.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Best way to contain?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Best way to contain?
Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2022 09:22:58 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 20 Aug 2022 13:22 UTC

XGID=-a-BB-C-BB-A-C--a--ccbcb--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

OTB, I reasoned as ah_clem did, playing 9/4 9/3 because I didn't
want to leave too many indirect shots. But the XG rollout below
says that 9/4 9/3 is a whopper. Evidently, it thinks that X should
take a bit of a risk in order to increase his chances of making the
5pt and/or the bar point. Since X is still 18 pips down after the
roll, he really wants to plug those holes; otherwise, O will have
repeated chances to escape and win the race.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 9/3 eq:-0.041
Player: 47.40% (G:1.72% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 52.60% (G:13.25% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.050..-0.032) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/4 9/3 eq:-0.151 (-0.110)
Player: 44.83% (G:1.33% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 55.17% (G:11.44% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.160..-0.142) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/6 9/3 eq:-0.235 (-0.194)
Player: 41.37% (G:1.27% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 58.63% (G:10.87% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.243..-0.227) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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rocksolid light 0.9.8
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