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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Double 4's to play

SubjectAuthor
* Double 4's to playTimothy Chow
+- Re: Double 4's to playah....Clem
+- Re: Double 4's to playbadgolferman
`- Rollout: Double 4's to playTimothy Chow

1
Double 4's to play

<te2hi8$30382$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Double 4's to play
Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2022 08:35:19 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 23 Aug 2022 12:35 UTC

XGID=-a---bE-C---cE----Bebb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O |
| X X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

Re: Double 4's to play

<te2prv$30uer$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Double 4's to play
Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:57:03 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Tue, 23 Aug 2022 14:57 UTC

On 8/23/2022 8:35 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a---bE-C---cE----Bebb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X              X |   | O  O  O          |
>  | X              X |   | O  O  O          |
>  | X                |   | O                |
>  | X                |   | O                |
>  | X                |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X  O             |
>  | O           X    |   | X  O           O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 155  O: 151 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 44

X will have a pretty good lead in the race after this play, so the game
plan should be to race. That iUnstacking the midpointmplies 18/14(2).
Then, it's a choice between continuing on to the ten point or bringing
two down to make the nine point. Nine point looks more flexible so I'll
do that. Unstacking the midpoint can't be too bad an idea.

18/14(2) 13/9(2).

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Double 4's to play

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Double 4's to play
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 13:12:43 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: badgolferman - Wed, 24 Aug 2022 13:12 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=-a---bE-C---cE----Bebb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X | | O O O |
> | X X | | O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O X | | X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 155 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 1
>X to play 44
>
>---
>Tim Chow

I find it difficult to run from the 18-point so this is a good
opportunity to do so safely. Might as well set another anchor on my
outer board too.

18/14(2), 13/9(2)

Rollout: Double 4's to play

<te7u9u$3lic3$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Double 4's to play
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 09:43:25 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 25 Aug 2022 13:43 UTC

XGID=-a---bE-C---cE----Bebb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O |
| X X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

My first instinct here was 18/14(2) 13/9(2), but then I talked myself
into 18/10(2), reasoning that X is just trying to come home safely,
and two stripped outfield points are harder to clear than one.

In the variant below, I have move O's "guard" on her 24pt up to her
20pt, and in that case, XG favors 18/10(2). In this variant, X can
freely dump behind O's anchor. But in the given position, he doesn't
have the same freedom. Among other things, having extra points in the
outfield gives X better defensive chances if he is hit.

I did rollouts with GNU Backgammon to see if the percentage of time
that X gets hit is larger after 18/14(2) 13/9(2) than after 18/10(2).
Apparently, the answer is no; X gets hit about 60-65% of the time after
either play. But *if* X gets hit, his survival chances are better if
he has more points made.

1. Rollout¹ 18/14(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.198
Player: 56.78% (G:5.51% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 43.22% (G:10.18% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.186..+0.211) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/10(2) eq:+0.119 (-0.079)
Player: 54.61% (G:5.41% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 45.39% (G:11.66% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.107..+0.131) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0.096 (-0.103)
Player: 53.61% (G:8.76% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 46.39% (G:12.47% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.080..+0.112) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-----cE-C---cE----Bebb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O |
| X X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X | | X O |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

1. Rollout¹ 18/10(2) eq:+0.272
Player: 58.04% (G:1.62% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 41.96% (G:1.94% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.262..+0.281) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/14(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.243 (-0.029)
Player: 56.98% (G:1.83% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 43.02% (G:2.44% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.233..+0.253) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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