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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer

SubjectAuthor
* 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answerTimothy Chow
+- Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answerah....Clem
+* Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answerpeps...@gmail.com
|`- Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answerah...Clem
+* Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answerbadgolferman
|`- Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answerpeps...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answerTimothy Chow

1
5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer

<te7uee$3lic3$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 09:45:49 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 25 Aug 2022 13:45 UTC

XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer

<te81vl$3ltl7$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 10:46:12 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Thu, 25 Aug 2022 14:46 UTC

On 8/25/2022 9:45 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X        O  O    |   | O  O     O       |
>  | X           O    |   | O        O       |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  | X                |   | O                |
>  | X                |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X        X       |
>  | O  X        X    |   | X     O  X       |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 130  O: 128 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 31

The ten point unstacks the midpoint, covers a blot, and makes a blocking
point 6 pips away from O's runner.

The five point makes the five point.

I'll go with three good things being superior to one very good thing.

Make the ten point.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer

<a3d6a2df-a320-4f37-a843-a9f39871e9a9n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 25 Aug 2022 15:50 UTC

On Thursday, August 25, 2022 at 2:45:52 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X X | | X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 130 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 31
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
Yes, the title does give it away!
Here, Trickster Tim really is in evidence.
Of course, we don't make a point!
We hit with 8/4*
We will only regret this after the opponent's next roll if they both hit and cover.
The opponent's good rolls are only 22/41/43/44 has far as I can see.

Paul

Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 16:07:58 -0000 (UTC)
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 by: badgolferman - Thu, 25 Aug 2022 16:07 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X X | | X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 130 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 1
>X to play 31
>
>---
>Tim Chow

The 10-point looks the most natural and blocks the opponent's 6. The
game is even right now so I see no need to hit.

Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer

<3973e7f6-9d2d-459b-8290-9ac1dbb5bcean@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 25 Aug 2022 17:15 UTC

On Thursday, August 25, 2022 at 5:08:00 PM UTC+1, badgolferman wrote:
> Timothy Chow wrote:
>
> >XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> >X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> >Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O | | O O O |
> > | X O | | O O |
> > | X O | | O |
> > | X | | O |
> > | X | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X | | X X |
> > | O X X | | X O X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> >Pip count X: 130 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
> >Cube: 1
> >X to play 31
> >
> >---
> >Tim Chow
> The 10-point looks the most natural and blocks the opponent's 6. The
> game is even right now so I see no need to hit.

Re hitting, how about this question (to which I don't know the answer).
Is the extent to which the opponent failing to rehit is a good outcome greater than the extent to which the opponent rehitting
is a bad outcome?
Hitting works brilliantly if they don't hit back. It seriously hampers the opponent's ability to escape the straggler.

Paul

Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer
Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2022 15:33:22 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Fri, 26 Aug 2022 19:33 UTC

On 8/25/2022 11:50 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Thursday, August 25, 2022 at 2:45:52 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
>> XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

>> ---
>> Tim Chow
> Yes, the title does give it away!
> Here, Trickster Tim really is in evidence.
> Of course, we don't make a point!
> We hit with 8/4*
> We will only regret this after the opponent's next roll if they both hit and cover.
> The opponent's good rolls are only 22/41/43/44 has far as I can see.

For opening replies, playing a "natural" is better than hitting on the
four or five point. Of course, this is not an opening reply, but I think
the same logic should hold.

I'd expect making the five point to be favored over the loose hit.

Rollout: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer

<ted3kb$9v9l$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 5pt or 10pt? The title gives away the answer
Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2022 08:44:57 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 27 Aug 2022 12:44 UTC

XGID=---Ba-D-C--AcE--ac-da-b---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

The subject line is of course a reference to Stick's post back in March:

https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/C_MVVNWVLtQ/m/GPXqb9ICBgAJ

As is obvious to Stick from the title, XG makes the 10pt. I didn't
roll out the hit, but XGR++ says that 8/4* is a triple whopper.

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 11/10 eq:+0.274
Player: 57.29% (G:4.43% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 42.71% (G:2.77% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.266..+0.282) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.145 (-0.129)
Player: 53.77% (G:6.85% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 46.23% (G:4.90% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.137..+0.153) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

1
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