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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Can't move the back checkers

SubjectAuthor
* Can't move the back checkersTimothy Chow
+- Re: Can't move the back checkersah...Clem
+- Re: Can't move the back checkersbadgolferman
`- Rollout: Can't move the back checkersTimothy Chow

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Can't move the back checkers

<tei8fg$11cfl$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Can't move the back checkers
Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2022 07:38:25 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 29 Aug 2022 11:38 UTC

XGID=--aB-BDB--A-dB--ab-c-bb-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

Re: Can't move the back checkers

<teig6p$13g2a$2@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Can't move the back checkers
Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2022 09:50:16 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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In-Reply-To: <tei8fg$11cfl$2@dont-email.me>
 by: ah...Clem - Mon, 29 Aug 2022 13:50 UTC

On 8/29/2022 7:38 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--aB-BDB--A-dB--ab-c-bb-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X        O  O    |   | O     O  O     X |
>  | X           O    |   | O     O  O     X |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O              X |   | X  X     X       |
>  | O     X        X |   | X  X     X  O    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 138  O: 132 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 32

Keeping the midpoint when there are still runners to escape seems
thematic. The ten point is worth something, but the simple 10/5 in a
roughly even race seems like the right idea.

Re: Can't move the back checkers

<teiknr$14mtd$1@dont-email.me>

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Can't move the back checkers
Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2022 15:07:39 -0000 (UTC)
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 by: badgolferman - Mon, 29 Aug 2022 15:07 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=--aB-BDB--A-dB--ab-c-bb-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
>
>X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 138 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 1
>X to play 32
>
>---
>Tim Chow

I can't bring myself to hit so 10/5 seems constructive, especially for
the next turn.

Rollout: Can't move the back checkers

<tenmqo$1qmab$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Can't move the back checkers
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2022 09:13:59 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 31 Aug 2022 13:13 UTC

XGID=--aB-BDB--A-dB--ab-c-bb-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

XG makes the 4pt here despite leaving a direct shot. Magriel's
criteria can help here; after 7/4 6/4, X is anchored with the
stronger board and has more checkers back. Since X is an underdog,
taking a risk with potentially large upside is justifiable.

1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.192
Player: 43.45% (G:18.19% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 56.55% (G:17.00% B:1.55%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.204..-0.180) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/5 eq:-0.258 (-0.066)
Player: 42.12% (G:15.52% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 57.88% (G:15.95% B:1.16%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.272..-0.244) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.282 (-0.090)
Player: 41.31% (G:15.55% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 58.69% (G:16.04% B:1.13%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.300..-0.265) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 7/2* eq:-0.328 (-0.137)
Player: 41.38% (G:17.36% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 58.62% (G:20.66% B:2.51%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.342..-0.315) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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