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China's consumption lost due to lock down: A back of envelop calculation

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Subject: China's consumption lost due to lock down: A back of envelop calculation
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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by: ltlee1 - Mon, 13 Jun 2022 13:34 UTC

Economist.com has an article trying to figure out China's lost consumption due to its zero-Covid policy.

ttps://www.economist.com/china/2022/06/09/it-will-take-time-for-chinas-consumers-to-recover-from-lockdown

I think a "years of life lost" would be more straight forward.

According to the following Nature.com article,
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3
About 16 years of life were lost for every death.

Shanghai with a population 16 million was locked down for 3 months. IF all Shanghai residents were temporarily death, the total of 4 million years of life would be lost to consumption.

But of course, they were not dead while locked down. They still have to consume food, liquid including alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage, energy and regular health maintenance and other services delivered online. Of course, they could still order what they want to buy online.

IF we assume they on the average reduced consumption by 10%, the total years of life lost to consumption would be 0.4 million years. On the positive side, their lost consumption save millions from sickness and death in other Shanghai residents and all over China.

Re: China's consumption lost due to lock down: A back of envelop calculation

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Subject: Re: China's consumption lost due to lock down: A back of envelop calculation
From: papajoe...@yahoo.com (stoney)
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by: stoney - Tue, 14 Jun 2022 09:58 UTC

On Monday, June 13, 2022 at 9:34:43 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> Economist.com has an article trying to figure out China's lost consumption due to its zero-Covid policy.
>
> ttps://www.economist.com/china/2022/06/09/it-will-take-time-for-chinas-consumers-to-recover-from-lockdown
>
> I think a "years of life lost" would be more straight forward.
>
> According to the following Nature.com article,
> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3
> About 16 years of life were lost for every death.
>
> Shanghai with a population 16 million was locked down for 3 months. IF all Shanghai residents were temporarily death, the total of 4 million years of life would be lost to consumption.
>
> But of course, they were not dead while locked down. They still have to consume food, liquid including alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage, energy and regular health maintenance and other services delivered online. Of course, they could still order what they want to buy online.
>
> IF we assume they on the average reduced consumption by 10%, the total years of life lost to consumption would be 0.4 million years. On the positive side, their lost consumption save millions from sickness and death in other Shanghai residents and all over China.

Yes, "years of life lost" is more accurate would be more straight forward. The person's life is shortened because sickness and death killed them.

Subject	Author
China's consumption lost due to lock down: A back of envelop calculation	ltlee1
Re: China's consumption lost due to lock down: A back of envelop calculation	stoney