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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Early game 22

SubjectAuthor
* Early game 22Timothy Chow
+- Re: Early game 22ah...Clem
`* Rollout: Early game 22Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Early game 22Stick Rice

1
Early game 22

<tenms4$1qmab$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Early game 22
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2022 09:14:45 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 31 Aug 2022 13:14 UTC

XGID=-B-b--E-C--AcB--ad-e---AA-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

Re: Early game 22

<teqdf9$26qqe$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Early game 22
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2022 09:52:38 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: ah...Clem - Thu, 1 Sep 2022 13:52 UTC

On 8/31/2022 9:14 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-B-b--E-C--AcB--ad-e---AA-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X        O  O    |   | O           X  X |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X        O     X |
>  | O  X        X    |   | X        O     X |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 140  O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 22

Making the four point seems obvious. Then, since we're ahead in the
race, springing the runners seems thematic. 24/20 exposes a triple
shot, but O has no board and unless O rolls a POH number there's lot's
of counterplay if X is hit.

24/20 6/4(2)

Rollout: Early game 22

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Early game 22
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2022 10:06:37 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 2 Sep 2022 14:06 UTC

XGID=-B-b--E-C--AcB--ad-e---AA-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

On the second roll of the game, playing 6/4(2) with a roll of 22 is
almost always what the bot does (the exception being that after the
opponent opens with 24/18 13/9, then XG hits 24/16* with 22). Here,
though, X's 1pt is made and O has no structure besides her 3pt anchor,
so blitzing becomes an attractive game plan. I have to admit that
it surprises me that making the 4pt is deemed a whopper with cheese,
but it's true that after 6/4(2), X has no good way to play the
remaining 2's. In the variant below, XG still hits, but the
alternatives are not whoppers.

1. Rollout¹ 24/16* eq:+0.254
Player: 55.12% (G:18.87% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 44.88% (G:11.96% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.239..+0.269) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/4(2) eq:+0.104 (-0.151)
Player: 52.66% (G:14.91% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 47.34% (G:13.04% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.090..+0.117) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/22 23/21 6/4(2) eq:+0.091 (-0.163)
Player: 52.27% (G:14.43% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 47.73% (G:13.15% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.078..+0.104) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4(2) eq:+0.075 (-0.179)
Player: 51.96% (G:13.29% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 48.04% (G:12.35% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.062..+0.088) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-B-b--E-C--AcB--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. XG Roller++ 24/16* eq:+0.270
Player: 55.46% (G:18.37% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 44.54% (G:10.88% B:0.48%)

2. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) eq:+0.207 (-0.063)
Player: 55.07% (G:10.98% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 44.93% (G:7.13% B:0.25%)

3. XG Roller++ 24/22(2) 6/4(2) eq:+0.199 (-0.071)
Player: 54.78% (G:13.04% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 45.22% (G:9.66% B:0.34%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Early game 22

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Early game 22
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sat, 3 Sep 2022 00:18 UTC

On Friday, September 2, 2022 at 10:06:41 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-B-b--E-C--AcB--ad-e---AA-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X X |
> | X O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O X |
> | O X X | | X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 140 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 22
> On the second roll of the game, playing 6/4(2) with a roll of 22 is
> almost always what the bot does (the exception being that after the
> opponent opens with 24/18 13/9, then XG hits 24/16* with 22). Here,
> though, X's 1pt is made and O has no structure besides her 3pt anchor,
> so blitzing becomes an attractive game plan. I have to admit that
> it surprises me that making the 4pt is deemed a whopper with cheese,
> but it's true that after 6/4(2), X has no good way to play the
> remaining 2's. In the variant below, XG still hits, but the
> alternatives are not whoppers.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 24/16* eq:+0.254
> Player: 55.12% (G:18.87% B:0.57%)
> Opponent: 44.88% (G:11.96% B:0.59%)
> Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.239..+0.269) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/4(2) eq:+0.104 (-0.151)
> Player: 52.66% (G:14.91% B:0.46%)
> Opponent: 47.34% (G:13.04% B:0.61%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.090..+0.117) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 24/22 23/21 6/4(2) eq:+0.091 (-0.163)
> Player: 52.27% (G:14.43% B:0.41%)
> Opponent: 47.73% (G:13.15% B:0.52%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.078..+0.104) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4(2) eq:+0.075 (-0.179)
> Player: 51.96% (G:13.29% B:0.39%)
> Opponent: 48.04% (G:12.35% B:0.42%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.062..+0.088) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-B-b--E-C--AcB--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X |
> | X O | | O X |
> | O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O X |
> | O X X | | X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 141 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 22
> 1. XG Roller++ 24/16* eq:+0.270
> Player: 55.46% (G:18.37% B:0.49%)
> Opponent: 44.54% (G:10.88% B:0.48%)
>
> 2. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) eq:+0.207 (-0.063)
> Player: 55.07% (G:10.98% B:0.20%)
> Opponent: 44.93% (G:7.13% B:0.25%)
>
> 3. XG Roller++ 24/22(2) 6/4(2) eq:+0.199 (-0.071)
> Player: 54.78% (G:13.04% B:0.29%)
> Opponent: 45.22% (G:9.66% B:0.34%)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The ace point is made, the opponent has an advanced anchor that functions much better than it normally would due to said ace point being made, and we're up/way up in the race. We have one remaining game plan, it isn't priming, it isn't attacking, it's running. Waiting even a turn to try to escape those back checkers would be a grievous error as when the opponent makes a point on us or any point in front of us our position becomes quite desperate.

Stick

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