I took the below, thinking that I have plenty of chances and that the threats
aren't that dramatic.
I know that resulting is a horrible sin, and I don't like it as
someone who uses statistics professionally, but my take
was certainly vindicated when I become an equity favourite during the game.
Why is taking so criminal?
When is a pure positional advantage, with no threats, good enough to
induce a drop?

Paul

XGID=-a---aE-D---bEaa-b-bbba--A:0:0:-1:00:8:2:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

Score is X:2 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 152 X-O: 2-8
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 75.53% (G:38.56% B:0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.47% (G:3.88% B:0.15%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.861, Double=+1.749

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.934 (-0.066)
Double/Take: +1.569 (+0.569)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

On Friday, 2 September 2022 at 18:20:52 UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I took the below, thinking that I have plenty of chances and that the threats
> aren't that dramatic.
> I know that resulting is a horrible sin, and I don't like it as
> someone who uses statistics professionally, but my take
> was certainly vindicated when I become an equity favourite during the game.
> Why is taking so criminal?
> When is a pure positional advantage, with no threats, good enough to
> induce a drop?
>
> Paul
>
> XGID=-a---aE-D---bEaa-b-bbba--A:0:0:-1:00:8:2:3:0:10
> X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
>
> Score is X:2 O:8. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X X |
> | X O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | O | O | |
> | O | | |
> | O | | |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X X X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 140 O: 152 X-O: 2-8
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> Analyzed in XG Roller+
> Player Winning Chances: 75.53% (G:38.56% B:0.54%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 24.47% (G:3.88% B:0.15%)
>
> Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.861, Double=+1.749
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.934 (-0.066)
> Double/Take: +1.569 (+0.569)
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

If you want expert advice on how to hawk a fast car around the US then there's no better place than this, even if the chief protagonist is somewhat reluctant to admit to his skillset.

"peps...@gmail.com" <pepstein5@gmail.com> writes:

> Why is taking so criminal?

Blitz.

Behind in the race, against a 3.5 board with 11 in the zone.

Axel

On Friday, September 2, 2022 at 1:52:41 PM UTC-4, Axel Reichert wrote:
> "peps...@gmail.com" <peps...@gmail.com> writes:
>
> > Why is taking so criminal?
> Blitz.
>
> Behind in the race, against a 3.5 board with 11 in the zone.
>
> Axel

And no real flexibility or development of our own.

Stick

On 9/2/2022 1:20 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> When is a pure positional advantage, with no threats, good enough to
> induce a drop?

No threats? What's your definition of a threat? The position looks
threatening to me. The opponent is threatening to close you out and
win a gammon.

---
Tim Chow

On Saturday, September 3, 2022 at 2:32:40 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 9/2/2022 1:20 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > When is a pure positional advantage, with no threats, good enough to
> > induce a drop?
> No threats? What's your definition of a threat? The position looks
> threatening to me. The opponent is threatening to close you out and
> win a gammon.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
I just meant that with 2.5 points open, the closeout won't happen any time soon.
I probably take too many, but I do sometimes get massively dinged for bad drops,
so it's tricky for me.

Paul

"peps...@gmail.com" <pepstein5@gmail.com> writes:

> I just meant that with 2.5 points open, the closeout won't happen any
> time soon. I probably take too many, but I do sometimes get massively
> dinged for bad drops, so it's tricky for me.

Have a look at

https://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/May00/blitz.htm

to get a feel for blitz positions. Do some parameter studies using
optimization software, and you might come up with an Epstein count for
blitzes, valued by generations of players still to come!

Axel